This matchup presents a rare opportunity where the obvious spread play (Celtics -18) is correct but substantially underpriced relative to the true game script. Brooklyn's six-game losing streak isn't a variance cluster—it's evidence of offensive stagnation against teams that aren't elite (San Antonio, Dallas, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Cleveland). These are functional NBA defenses, not world-beaters, yet the Nets have consecutive losses to all of them. This indicates the problem isn't matchup-specific; it's systemic execution failure that Boston's elite home defense will amplify rather than create. Jaylen Brown's right knee contusion removes mid-range scoring and ball-handling, but this narrative overstates its impact. Derrick White has elevated to 23.6 PPG on 47.1% FG over his last five games, positioning him as Boston's primary creator in Brown's absence. Against Nolan Traore's 34.9% FG defensive mark, White operates without meaningful pressure. Simultaneously, Neemias Queta (9.2 PPG, 59.3% FG, 28.8 MPG) will exploit Brooklyn's undersized interior, where defensive data is sparse and rim protection is inconsistent. These secondary scorers—not missing Brown's replacement—define Boston's offensive ceiling. The critical betting edge resides in game flow and pace suppression. Boston's recent defensive performance (105 PPG allowed) combined with Brooklyn's turnover-prone offense creates a suffocating environment. The Nets generate...