Michael Porter Jr double double

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+549— stable

player double double

Michael Porter Jr double double

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+549— stable

player double double

45.70

Composite Score

+5.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

20.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

While the quantitative edge slightly favors the bet on Michael Porter Jr. hitting a double-double at +549 odds, both agents present strong arguments against it. The Celtics' top-ranked defense and potential blowout scenario—where minutes could be limited for Porter—make the likelihood of him achieving a double-double questionable. With a final Net EV of 0.05, the value does not justify a bet given the significant risks highlighted by the anti-agent.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 23.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in his last 5 games, indicating strong scoring and rebounding ability that can lead to a double-double.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets have been struggling defensively, ranking low in both rebounding and assists allowed, providing an opportunity for Porter to capitalize on these weaknesses.
→NARRATIVE: Given that Boston is a large favorite with a spread of -18.0, the likely game script indicates the Celtics may dominate, leading to increased minutes for Porter Jr. as he plays a larger role in the offense.
→TREND: In his last encounter with the Brooklyn Nets, Porter recorded a double-double (11 rebounds and a solid points total), suggesting he has had success against this opponent recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are looking to bounce back after a loss, and with the stakes of a big win, Porter Jr. may see extended playing time, increasing his chances to hit a double-double threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 83%

Evidence

→STATS: Michael Porter Jr. has recorded double-doubles in only 2 of his last 5 games, reflecting inconsistency and making achieving a double-double less likely.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics possess a strong defensive unit, currently ranked 4th in points allowed per game, making it a challenging matchup for Porter Jr. to find scoring and rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a double-digit spread of 18 points favoring the Celtics, there is a high potential for a blowout, which may limit Porter Jr.'s minutes and opportunities to accumulate stats towards a double-double.
→TREND: In his recent games against Brooklyn, Porter Jr. has not surpassed 10 rebounds or 10 assists, with a stat line of 6 rebounds in one game and only 5 assists in another during that stretch, indicating a trend of underperformance in achieving double-doubles.
→SITUATIONAL: The potential for Christmas fatigue might be present given that the Celtics are coming off a loss, and the significant pressure to bounce back could lead to a heavier reliance on star players, limiting Porter Jr.'s usage.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 23.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in his last 5 games, indicating strong scoring and rebounding ability that can lead to a double-double.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets have been struggling defensively, ranking low in both rebounding and assists allowed, providing an opportunity for Porter to capitalize on these weaknesses.
→NARRATIVE: Given that Boston is a large favorite with a spread of -18.0, the likely game script indicates the Celtics may dominate, leading to increased minutes for Porter Jr. as he plays a larger role in the offense.
→TREND: In his last encounter with the Brooklyn Nets, Porter recorded a double-double (11 rebounds and a solid points total), suggesting he has had success against this opponent recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are looking to bounce back after a loss, and with the stakes of a big win, Porter Jr. may see extended playing time, increasing his chances to hit a double-double threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2