Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Baylor Scheierman Under 14.5 points rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
-104— stable
player points rebounds assists
Baylor Scheierman Under 14.5 points rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
-104— stable
player points rebounds assists
53.00
Composite Score
+19.7%
Net EV
80.00
Narrative Fit
69.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Baylor Scheierman is unlikely to exceed 14.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists against the Boston Celtics, who are a top-tier defensive team and heavily favored to win. With Scheierman averaging just 1.6 points per game over his last five contests and potentially seeing reduced minutes in a lopsided game, this bet aligns well with the game's narrative. The Net EV of 0.20 suggests the market has undervalued this wager, making it a solid opportunity to capitalize on Scheierman's struggles.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman is averaging just 1.6 points per game over the last five games, which is significantly below the required 14.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Boston Celtics, who are a top-tier defensive team, Scheierman will likely struggle to find scoring opportunities and may be limited in his minutes due to a potential blowout.
- →NARRATIVE: The Boston Celtics are heavily favored with a spread of -18.0, suggesting a potential for a lopsided game where starters like Scheierman may see reduced playing time in garbage time.
- →TREND: In Scheierman's recent performance, his combined points, rebounds, and assists have consistently fallen short, highlighted by his underwhelming last five games average of 4.9 total combined stats.
- →SITUATIONAL: Scheierman's average minutes per game of 11.4 further indicates limited opportunity for production, and with the game's context potentially leading to fewer minutes due to a large spread, achieving over 14.5 combined stats appears highly unlikely.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman's recent averages over the last 5 games include 1.6 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists, with a total of 4.4 total points, rebounds, and assists, indicating he struggles to meet higher marked thresholds.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are currently facing the Boston Celtics, who have one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the league, which may hinder Scheierman's scoring and assist opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: In a game with a high spread of Celtics -18.0, it's likely that the Celtics will dominate, potentially leading to a decrease in available minutes for Scheierman if the game becomes a blowout.
- →TREND: Baylor's inconsistency is evidenced by his performance where he scored 0 points against the Celtics previously and had a high of 6 rebounds in a single game against the Wizards, showing volatility in his contributions.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Nets on a 6-game losing streak and struggling overall, their lack of synergy can lead to less ball movement and fewer opportunities for their players to rack up combined stats like points, rebounds, and assists.
Thesis: weak
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman is averaging just 1.6 points per game over the last five games, which is significantly below the required 14.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Boston Celtics, who are a top-tier defensive team, Scheierman will likely struggle to find scoring opportunities and may be limited in his minutes due to a potential blowout.
- →NARRATIVE: The Boston Celtics are heavily favored with a spread of -18.0, suggesting a potential for a lopsided game where starters like Scheierman may see reduced playing time in garbage time.
- →TREND: In Scheierman's recent performance, his combined points, rebounds, and assists have consistently fallen short, highlighted by his underwhelming last five games average of 4.9 total combined stats.
- →SITUATIONAL: Scheierman's average minutes per game of 11.4 further indicates limited opportunity for production, and with the game's context potentially leading to fewer minutes due to a large spread, achieving over 14.5 combined stats appears highly unlikely.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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