Nolan Traore Under 0.5 threes

🧠 Conviction Bet

+185— stable

player threes

Nolan Traore Under 0.5 threes

🧠 Conviction Bet

+185— stable

player threes

40.40

Composite Score

+14.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

59.60

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the narrative of the game, it is expected to be a low-scoring affair with the Boston Celtics likely dominating against the Brooklyn Nets, which reduces opportunities for bench players like Traore to score. Traore's recent performances show that he has struggled to exceed 0.5 made threes and the solid defense of the Celtics against perimeter shooting amplifies the likelihood that he will continue to underperform. The Net EV of 0.15 indicates that this bet is underpriced by the market, and the supporting evidence aligns strongly with a low-volume scoring narrative.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: In his last five games, Nolan Traore has averaged only 2.8 FG made per game with no clear high volume of three-point attempts reflected in his statistics, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 made threes.
→MATCHUP: Traore faces the Boston Celtics, a defensively sound team currently ranked 2nd in the league. Their ability to defend against perimeter shooting significantly reduces the likelihood of him making a three-pointer.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected large spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, the game script likely implies that Brooklyn might be trailing, which typically results in lower shooting opportunities for bench players like Traore.
→TREND: Traore's recent performance shows no indication of hitting a groove from beyond the arc, as evidenced by the lack of made threes in the game-by-game breakdown, suggesting continued underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: The game total is low at 209.5, indicating a likely lower-scoring affair, which diminishes the chances of any player, including Traore, to exceed thresholds like 0.5 made threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Nolan Traore has a 3P percentage of 36.7, indicating he has a solid ability to hit three-pointers which supports exceeding 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are facing a struggling Brooklyn Nets team with a record of 15-43, which may lead to more open looks for Traore given the expected defensive focus on stronger players.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high spread of 18.0 in favor of the Boston Celtics, the game is expected to be high-scoring where Traore can capitalize on increased possessions to hit at least one three-pointer.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Traore has averaged 2.8 FG made per game; with increased minutes and more scoring opportunities, he is likely to exceed 0.5 three-pointers.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are coming off a loss and are likely to come out strong against a lower-ranked team, which could lead to extended minutes for Traore if the blowout occurs.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: In his last five games, Nolan Traore has averaged only 2.8 FG made per game with no clear high volume of three-point attempts reflected in his statistics, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 made threes.
→MATCHUP: Traore faces the Boston Celtics, a defensively sound team currently ranked 2nd in the league. Their ability to defend against perimeter shooting significantly reduces the likelihood of him making a three-pointer.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected large spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, the game script likely implies that Brooklyn might be trailing, which typically results in lower shooting opportunities for bench players like Traore.
→TREND: Traore's recent performance shows no indication of hitting a groove from beyond the arc, as evidenced by the lack of made threes in the game-by-game breakdown, suggesting continued underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: The game total is low at 209.5, indicating a likely lower-scoring affair, which diminishes the chances of any player, including Traore, to exceed thresholds like 0.5 made threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2