Payton Pritchard double double

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+820— stable

player double double

Payton Pritchard double double

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+820— stable

player double double

37.80

Composite Score

+1.3%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

4.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the dynamics of the game, the strong anti-agent narrative indicating a potential blowout limits Pritchard's minutes, which significantly hampers his chances of hitting a double-double. While the pro-agent points to increased involvement and opportunity, this is overshadowed by the Celtics’ expected dominance and slow pace, leading to fewer stats overall. The final Net EV of 0.01 suggests only marginal value, making it unwise to pursue this bet when there are better opportunities.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Payton Pritchard has averaged 6.0 assists and 4.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, showing increased involvement that raises the potential for reaching a double-double.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are struggling defensively as evidenced by their record of 15-43 and a 6-game losing streak, which could allow for more opportunities for Pritchard to accumulate stats.
→NARRATIVE: A large spread of -18.0 for the Celtics indicates they could dominate the game, allowing Pritchard to play extended minutes, which is critical for achieving a double-double.
→TREND: Pritchard has recently seen his minutes increase to an average of 32.2 in the last five games, suggesting a consistent role that supports his potential to score and assist more frequently.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are fighting for playoff positioning and need a strong performance to bounce back after their recent loss, which likely means higher usage for key players like Pritchard.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, Basketball Reference

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Payton Pritchard's recent performance shows that while he averages 6.0 assists per game, he only averages 4.2 rebounds, which is below the threshold of 10 combined needed for a double-double.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are heavily favored in this game with a spread of -18.0, indicating that it may lead to a blowout, which typically limits the minutes and production of bench players like Pritchard.
→NARRATIVE: With a lower game total of 209.5 expected, there is a strong suggestion of a slow-paced game, which creates fewer opportunities for players to accumulate high stats across the board.
→TREND: In the last five games, Pritchard has scored 14.2 points but has only achieved 10 combined (points, rebounds, assists) in just 2 out of those five games, indicating he often falls short of double digits in at least one category.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the context of the game where Boston is expected to dominate, there is a high risk of Pritchard's minutes being limited due to garbage time, significantly reducing his chances to hit the double-double target.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Payton Pritchard has averaged 6.0 assists and 4.2 rebounds over his last 5 games, showing increased involvement that raises the potential for reaching a double-double.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are struggling defensively as evidenced by their record of 15-43 and a 6-game losing streak, which could allow for more opportunities for Pritchard to accumulate stats.
→NARRATIVE: A large spread of -18.0 for the Celtics indicates they could dominate the game, allowing Pritchard to play extended minutes, which is critical for achieving a double-double.
→TREND: Pritchard has recently seen his minutes increase to an average of 32.2 in the last five games, suggesting a consistent role that supports his potential to score and assist more frequently.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are fighting for playoff positioning and need a strong performance to bounce back after their recent loss, which likely means higher usage for key players like Pritchard.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, Basketball Reference