Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Baylor Scheierman Under 6.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
+100— stable
player points
Baylor Scheierman Under 6.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
+100— stable
player points
41.70
Composite Score
+13.3%
Net EV
65.00
Narrative Fit
50.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In the upcoming matchup, the Brooklyn Nets are facing a strong Boston Celtics team that is expected to dominate, likely leading to fewer minutes for bench players like Baylor Scheierman. With Scheierman averaging only 1.6 points in his last five games and having previously scored 0 points in limited minutes against the Celtics, the scenario suggests he will struggle to reach the 6.5 point mark. The Net EV of 0.13 indicates that the bet is slightly underpriced, reinforcing the belief that Scheierman will find it difficult to score against a proficient defense under potentially limited playing time.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman has averaged only 1.6 points per game over his last five games, which is significantly below the 6.5 points threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are facing the Boston Celtics, who are ranked highly defensively, making it difficult for Scheierman to find open looks and score effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, the game script is likely to lead to fewer minutes for bench players like Scheierman, reducing his scoring opportunities.
- →TREND: In his last game against the Celtics, Scheierman played only 3 minutes and scored 0 points, highlighting a trend of limited production against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nets are currently on a six-game losing streak, indicating a lack of momentum and confidence, which can further hurt the performance of players like Scheierman who thrive in competitive environments.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman has averaged only 1.6 points over his last five games, but this includes a significant performance gap, as he played only 3 minutes in one game against the Celtics, indicating he can exceed his recent averages in more minutes.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics' large spread of -18.0 suggests they will likely be in a comfortable lead early, which can lead to opportunities for bench players like Scheierman to accrue more minutes and contribute scoring in garbage time.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Celtics projected to dominate in this matchup against the Nets, it stands to reason that Scheierman may see more playing time if the game becomes a blowout, thus increasing his potential to exceed the 6.5 points threshold.
- →TREND: Although Scheierman has shown low scoring in recent games, his total minutes sometimes varied significantly, suggesting he can score more when he logs extended playing time, which should be available given the anticipated game script.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nets are struggling with a recent record of 15-43 and have lost 6 straight games, indicating a potential for garbage time for the Celtics' bench players, where Scheierman may have a chance to exceed 6.5 points.
Thesis: moderate
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman has averaged only 1.6 points per game over his last five games, which is significantly below the 6.5 points threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are facing the Boston Celtics, who are ranked highly defensively, making it difficult for Scheierman to find open looks and score effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, the game script is likely to lead to fewer minutes for bench players like Scheierman, reducing his scoring opportunities.
- →TREND: In his last game against the Celtics, Scheierman played only 3 minutes and scored 0 points, highlighting a trend of limited production against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nets are currently on a six-game losing streak, indicating a lack of momentum and confidence, which can further hurt the performance of players like Scheierman who thrive in competitive environments.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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