Neemias Queta Over 1.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-105— stable

player assists

Neemias Queta Over 1.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-105— stable

player assists

55.00

Composite Score

+37.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the expected narrative of the Nets being in catch-up mode against the Celtics' strong defense, Neemias Queta's role as a playmaker should see him more involved, leading to increased assist opportunities. Despite his season average being lower, recent averages indicate he can exceed the 1.5 assists threshold, aligning with the game's anticipated flow. The Net EV of 0.37 suggests the market may be undervaluing this bet, making it a compelling choice.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Neemias Queta has averaged 2.0 assists per game over his last 5 games, directly exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets' current standings and performance indicate they are struggling, which typically requires more contributions from players like Queta who could be involved in playmaking opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With the Boston Celtics heavily favored with a -18.0 spread, a likely scenario involves the Nets being in catch-up mode, pushing Queta to be more active in facilitating plays to create scoring opportunities.
→TREND: Queta has shown an increase in usage during the last few games, reflected by his jump to 28.8 minutes per game, allowing more chances to accumulate assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are on a 6-game losing streak, which may lead to Queta being utilized more heavily as the team seeks to adjust tactics and generate offense, potentially increasing his assist contributions.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Neemias Queta has averaged only 0.7 assists per game this season, which suggests he is not typically a playmaker.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics have a strong defensive unit that typically limits opposing centers, impacting Queta's ability to facilitate assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a large spread of -18.0 favoring the Celtics, there is a strong likelihood that the game could turn into a blowout, leading to Queta playing fewer minutes, which would negatively affect his assists total.
→TREND: In his last five games, while Queta has averaged 2.0 assists, he has not established a reliable consistency in reaching 1.5 assists in high-pressure situations against competitive teams like the Celtics.
→SITUATIONAL: The Nets' current losing streak of 6 games suggests a lack of team cohesion and offensive rhythm, which could make it more difficult for Queta to record assists during this game.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Neemias Queta has averaged 2.0 assists per game over his last 5 games, directly exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets' current standings and performance indicate they are struggling, which typically requires more contributions from players like Queta who could be involved in playmaking opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With the Boston Celtics heavily favored with a -18.0 spread, a likely scenario involves the Nets being in catch-up mode, pushing Queta to be more active in facilitating plays to create scoring opportunities.
→TREND: Queta has shown an increase in usage during the last few games, reflected by his jump to 28.8 minutes per game, allowing more chances to accumulate assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are on a 6-game losing streak, which may lead to Queta being utilized more heavily as the team seeks to adjust tactics and generate offense, potentially increasing his assist contributions.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2