SAL 9000
SAL 9000
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Kansas JayhawksKansas Jayhawks21-7
@
Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats26-2
17h 0m
Sat, Feb 28 • 9:00 PM|✓2/27 7:07 PM|70 wagers• 52 props
Game Lines
SPR
ML
O/U
Jayhawks
--
💤+320+320—
--
Wildcats
--
🎯-425-425—
--

Key Themes

Read full game script

SAL's Picks

🔒 SAL's Lock🎯 T1

Arizona Wildcats ML

While Arizona has a strong record and home advantage which lends itself to a favorable outcome, the Net EV of 0.02 indicates a minimal edge which is not substantial enough to warrant a...

-425+1.5% EVScore: 57%
Premium Parlay3-Leg

Desert Dominance Duo

1.Arizona Wildcats ML
2.Brayden Burries Over 14.5 points
3.Melvin Council Jr. Under 16.5 points rebounds
+323+4.0% EV

📊Analysis Quality(37 actionable / 62 total)

Core Value Bet
Count: 5 (8%)
Avg EV: -0.9%
Range: -8.3% - 2.8%
🧠 32
Conviction Bet
Count: 32 (52%)
Avg EV: -3.9%
Range: -22.2% - 8.4%
💤 25
Noise Bet
Count: 25 (40%)
Avg EV: -2.4%
Range: -32.4% - 27.2%
🎯Core
5 (8%)
🧠Conviction
32 (52%)
🚀Asymmetric
0 (0%)
💤Noise
25 (40%)

Tier Distribution by Prop Type

Prop Type
🎯T1
🧠T2
🚀T3
💤T4
Total
Points
–32––32
Rebounds
–––1414
3-Pointers
–––66
Total03202052
Intensity = count relative to max
T1-3 (Heat)
T4 (Ice)
🦎

SAL's Game Script

Full betting analysis and game context

Arizona's road mastery—88.9% win rate away from home versus Kansas' 55.6% record on the road—isn't just a statistical quirk; it's the defining structural advantage that makes -8.5 a gift for sharp bettors. All three analysts converged on this mismatch as the headline factor, and for good reason: Kansas has proven they simply cannot execute away from Lawrence, while Arizona wins road games with championship-level consistency. The 8.5-point spread calibrates for the ranking gap (#2 vs #14) but completely misses that this game is played in Tucson, where Arizona's elite poise translates to execution edge and Kansas' documented vulnerabilities surface immediately. Kansas' offensive construction amplifies this problem. Darryn Peterson (19.5 PPG, 47.2% FG, 40.5% from three) carries approximately 30% of Kansas' scoring load—a dangerous dependency against Arizona's balanced defense. Arizona counters with five double-digit scorers (Burries 15.5, Peat 13.8, Dell'Orso 12.0, Kharchenkov 10.1, Bradley 9.6), creating offensive redundancy that makes Kansas' game plan of loading defensive pressure on Peterson futile. When Arizona spreads the floor across five reliable scorers, Kansas' defense exhausts itself chasing multiple threats, and Arizona's pace-control game (Bradley's 3.3 APG, interior-oriented offense) limits Peterson's transition opportunities where he thrives. The interior matchup further exposes Kansas' construction. Motiejus Krivas...

Analysis generated 2/27/2026, 7:07:28 PM

📊SAL's Edge Analysis

EV14%Story50%Pro35%Bal57%Score44%
Edge over market odds
Fits game narrative
Bullish agent confidence
Pro vs Anti consensus
Overall quality metric
Core ValueGame Line

Total Under 146.5

+1.5%edge
vs All WagersTop 19%
vs Core ValueTop 20%
Elite edge among all analyzed wagers
Odds
-110
Implied
52%
SAL Est.
54%
EV
2.8%
1 of 37 wagers

Top Individual Bets(37 of 62)

Book:
Bet
Koa Peat Under 17.5 points rebounds
+8.4%-115
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Koa Peat Under 17.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
+8.4%
32.50
-115
Brayden Burries Over 14.5 points
+7.5%-128
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Brayden Burries Over 14.5 points
FanDuel • points
+7.5%
42.40
-128
Ivan Kharchenkov Under 12.5 points
+5.6%-114
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Ivan Kharchenkov Under 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
+5.6%
28.60
-114
Motiejus Krivas Under 18.5 points rebounds
+4.0%-104
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Motiejus Krivas Under 18.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
+4.0%
25.80
-104
Flory Bidunga Under 12.5 points
+3.2%-108
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Flory Bidunga Under 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
+3.2%
24.60
-108
Melvin Council Jr. Under 16.5 points rebounds
+3.2%-108
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Melvin Council Jr. Under 16.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
+3.2%
24.60
-108
Total Under 146.5 Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
+2.8%-110
🎯DraftKings • totals
🎯
Total Under 146.5 Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
DraftKings • totals
+2.8%
44.40
-110
Tre White Under 12.5 points
+2.6%-132
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Tre White Under 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
+2.6%
23.70
-132
Ivan Kharchenkov Under 18.5 points rebounds
+2.4%-104
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Ivan Kharchenkov Under 18.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
+2.4%
23.70
-104
Tre White Under 17.5 points rebounds
+2.2%-122
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Tre White Under 17.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
+2.2%
23.00
-122
Arizona Wildcats ML
+1.5%-425
🎯BetMGM • h2h
🎯
Arizona Wildcats ML
BetMGM • h2h
+1.5%
56.90
-425
Arizona Wildcats ML
+1.4%-430
🎯FanDuel • h2h
🎯
Arizona Wildcats ML
FanDuel • h2h
+1.4%
56.70
-430
Melvin Council Jr. Under 11.5 points
+0.9%-114
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Melvin Council Jr. Under 11.5 points
FanDuel • points
+0.9%
21.40
-114
Darryn Peterson Over 17.5 points
+0.3%-122
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Darryn Peterson Over 17.5 points
FanDuel • points
+0.3%
29.00
-122
Brayden Burries Under 14.5 points
-0.6%-102
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Brayden Burries Under 14.5 points
FanDuel • points
-0.6%
18.70
-102
Motiejus Krivas Under 10.5 points
-1.5%-132
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Motiejus Krivas Under 10.5 points
FanDuel • points
-1.5%
21.10
-132
Flory Bidunga Under 22.5 points rebounds
-1.7%-106
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Flory Bidunga Under 22.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-1.7%
29.70
-106
Jaden Bradley Under 13.5 points
-2.1%-128
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Jaden Bradley Under 13.5 points
FanDuel • points
-2.1%
21.70
-128
Total Under 147.5 Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
-2.2%-105
🎯FanDuel • totals
🎯
Total Under 147.5 Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
FanDuel • totals
-2.2%
45.70
-105
Koa Peat Over 12.5 points
-3.4%-102
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Koa Peat Over 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
-3.4%
22.80
-102
Brayden Burries Under 20.5 points rebounds
-4.2%-122
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Brayden Burries Under 20.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-4.2%
23.40
-122
Koa Peat Under 12.5 points
-4.2%-128
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Koa Peat Under 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
-4.2%
23.40
-128
Motiejus Krivas Over 10.5 points
-4.5%+102
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Motiejus Krivas Over 10.5 points
FanDuel • points
-4.5%
23.20
+102
Flory Bidunga Over 22.5 points rebounds
-5.2%-120
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Flory Bidunga Over 22.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-5.2%
32.40
-120
Brayden Burries Over 20.5 points rebounds
-5.3%-104
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Brayden Burries Over 20.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-5.3%
24.30
-104
Darryn Peterson Under 17.5 points
-7.0%-106
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Darryn Peterson Under 17.5 points
FanDuel • points
-7.0%
34.00
-106
Jaden Bradley Over 13.5 points
-7.1%-102
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Jaden Bradley Over 13.5 points
FanDuel • points
-7.1%
26.00
-102
Arizona Wildcats -8.5
-8.3%-110
🎯FanDuel • spreads
🎯
Arizona Wildcats -8.5
FanDuel • spreads
-8.3%
42.90
-110
Melvin Council Jr. Over 16.5 points rebounds
-9.7%-118
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Melvin Council Jr. Over 16.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-9.7%
27.60
-118
Tre White Over 17.5 points rebounds
-9.8%-104
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Tre White Over 17.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-9.8%
27.30
-104
Flory Bidunga Over 12.5 points
-10.2%-120
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Flory Bidunga Over 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
-10.2%
27.90
-120
Melvin Council Jr. Over 11.5 points
-10.5%-115
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Melvin Council Jr. Over 11.5 points
FanDuel • points
-10.5%
28.90
-115
Motiejus Krivas Over 18.5 points rebounds
-10.7%-122
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Motiejus Krivas Over 18.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-10.7%
28.30
-122
Tre White Over 12.5 points
-10.9%+102
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Tre White Over 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
-10.9%
28.20
+102
Ivan Kharchenkov Over 18.5 points rebounds
-12.9%-122
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Ivan Kharchenkov Over 18.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-12.9%
31.30
-122
Ivan Kharchenkov Over 12.5 points
-21.2%-114
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Ivan Kharchenkov Over 12.5 points
FanDuel • points
-21.2%
37.90
-114
Koa Peat Over 17.5 points rebounds
-22.2%-111
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Koa Peat Over 17.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-22.2%
38.00
-111
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