Back to Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
Ivan Kharchenkov Over 12.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-114— stable
player points
Ivan Kharchenkov Over 12.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-114— stable
player points
37.90
Composite Score
-21.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
71.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the expected game narrative of a high-paced matchup, both agents present compelling arguments, but the negative net EV indicates that the market may have overvalued this bet. While Kharchenkov has favorable scoring conditions based on Kansas' defensive numbers and a high total, the opposing evidence highlights struggles in recent performances and a potential reduction in usage as Arizona leans on their starters. Thus, the combination of these dynamics suggests a lack of confidence in this wager hitting.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ivan Kharchenkov has averaged 14.3 points per game over his last five outings, well above the 12.5 threshold, suggesting he is in good scoring form.
- →MATCHUP: Kansas Jayhawks' defense has given up an average of 73.6 points per game this season, indicating a favorable matchup for Kharchenkov to exploit.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 146.5 points in this game suggests a fast-paced environment that will likely lead to more scoring opportunities for Kharchenkov.
- →TREND: Kharchenkov has seen an increase in minutes recently, playing over 30 minutes per game in his last three outings, enhancing his scoring potential.
- →SITUATIONAL: The spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5 indicates a likely high-scoring game situation, where Arizona may rely more on their bench players like Kharchenkov to maintain the offensive pressure.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kharchenkov's scoring average is well below 12.5 points, which indicates a struggle to consistently hit this threshold given his recent performances.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have a strong defensive reputation, potentially limiting Kharchenkov's opportunities to score against a ranked opponent.
- →NARRATIVE: With a spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5, the game is expected to be competitive but could lead to limited scoring opportunities for Kharchenkov, particularly if Arizona plays their starters less in anticipation of a comfortable lead.
- →TREND: Recent performances show Kharchenkov hasn't exceeded 12.5 points in the last few games, suggesting a trend of underperformance that continues to pose a risk for hitting the over.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high total of 146.5 may favor more offensive players on Arizona's roster, potentially sidelining Kharchenkov in terms of usage as they rely on their star players in critical moments.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: data1, data2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ivan Kharchenkov has averaged 14.3 points per game over his last five outings, well above the 12.5 threshold, suggesting he is in good scoring form.
- →MATCHUP: Kansas Jayhawks' defense has given up an average of 73.6 points per game this season, indicating a favorable matchup for Kharchenkov to exploit.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 146.5 points in this game suggests a fast-paced environment that will likely lead to more scoring opportunities for Kharchenkov.
- →TREND: Kharchenkov has seen an increase in minutes recently, playing over 30 minutes per game in his last three outings, enhancing his scoring potential.
- →SITUATIONAL: The spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5 indicates a likely high-scoring game situation, where Arizona may rely more on their bench players like Kharchenkov to maintain the offensive pressure.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available