Back to Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats

Tre White Over 12.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

+102— stable

player points

Tre White Over 12.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

+102— stable

player points

28.20

Composite Score

-10.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

33.30

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The wager on Tre White Over 12.5 points doesn't align well with the expected game narrative. While there may be opportunities for scoring due to the high total of 146.5, the anti-agent's insights about Kansas's struggle against a strong Arizona defense present a significant concern. With a final Net EV of -0.11, it reflects that the market likely has Tre White's scoring expectations correctly priced, suggesting that betting on him to exceed 12.5 points is not advisable.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 55%

Evidence

→STATS: Tre White has demonstrated scoring ability with a strong average, and he is part of a Kansas team that relies heavily on guard play for their offensive output.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks are facing the Arizona Wildcats, who play at a high pace (indicated by the total of 146.5), which tends to generate more scoring opportunities for players like Tre White.
→NARRATIVE: The game's high total suggests an expected high-scoring affair, allowing Tre White multiple chances to exceed the 12.5-point threshold.
→TREND: Kansas has been in decent recent form, with their win against a good opponent indicating productive play, which is likely to translate into offensive contributions from Tre White.
→SITUATIONAL: The spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5 indicates they are favorites, hinting at a potentially competitive game where Kansas will need to score frequently to stay in it, benefiting Tre White's points outlook.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Tre White's recent performance indicates a struggle with scoring, as he has not consistently hit double digits in points in previous matchups against tough defenses.
→MATCHUP: The Arizona Wildcats are currently ranked #2 and have a strong defensive roster, which could limit scoring opportunities for White. Their opponents tend to struggle to score against them, which is unfavorable for White's chances to exceed 12.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: The game script is expected to favor Arizona with a spread of -8.5, suggesting it may lead to Kansas being forced to rely on their star players rather than allowing for a balanced offensive output, potentially limiting White's scoring.
→TREND: Recently, Tre White has been averaging closer to 10 points per game, indicating a trend of underperformance relative to the 12.5 point threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Kansas is facing Arizona in a high-pressure away game, which can often make players struggle, particularly in an environment where the crowd strongly supports the home team.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 55%

Evidence

→STATS: Tre White has demonstrated scoring ability with a strong average, and he is part of a Kansas team that relies heavily on guard play for their offensive output.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks are facing the Arizona Wildcats, who play at a high pace (indicated by the total of 146.5), which tends to generate more scoring opportunities for players like Tre White.
→NARRATIVE: The game's high total suggests an expected high-scoring affair, allowing Tre White multiple chances to exceed the 12.5-point threshold.
→TREND: Kansas has been in decent recent form, with their win against a good opponent indicating productive play, which is likely to translate into offensive contributions from Tre White.
→SITUATIONAL: The spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5 indicates they are favorites, hinting at a potentially competitive game where Kansas will need to score frequently to stay in it, benefiting Tre White's points outlook.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2