Back to Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
Jaden Bradley Under 13.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-128— stable
player points
Jaden Bradley Under 13.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-128— stable
player points
21.70
Composite Score
-2.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
6.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given Kansas' strong defense which has effectively contained opposing guards, Jaden Bradley's Under 13.5 points wager makes sense in the context of this matchup. While he has shown the ability to score above that line recently, the likelihood of being limited by a solid defense in a game situation that favors other scorers suggests he may struggle to reach that total. The Net EV of -0.02 indicates that the line is fairly accurate, making this a low-confidence bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaden Bradley's recent scoring average shows inconsistency, and there's no available data indicating he has exceeded 13.5 points frequently in past matchups against strong defenses like Kansas.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks' strong defensive lineup might limit Bradley's opportunities, especially considering their recent performance where they effectively contained opposing guards.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread favoring Arizona by 8.5 points, it's likely that the game will lead to a different flow, which may not suit Bradley playing aggressively and thus scoring high points.
- →TREND: Bradley has shown fluctuating form in his scoring, and the recent outcomes indicate he might struggle to find rhythm against competitive teams, suggesting he may not have enough offensive production.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Arizona possibly entering a high-scoring game, there’s a chance that ball distribution could favor other key scorers on the team, thereby limiting Bradley's opportunity to take the necessary shots to exceed 13.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaden Bradley has been averaging around 15 points per game in his recent outings, indicating he is capable of exceeding the 13.5-point threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled defensively against strong perimeter shooters this season, which plays to Bradley's strengths as a guard.
- →NARRATIVE: With Arizona's high total of 146.5 and a large spread of -8.5 in favor of the Wildcats, a fast-paced game is expected, allowing more scoring opportunities for all players, including Bradley.
- →TREND: Arizona has been on a three-game winning streak, and players typically perform well in high-pressure situations to maintain momentum, particularly when at home.
- →SITUATIONAL: Bradley's role within the Arizona lineup is amplified due to the strong offensive game plan that benefits guards, especially against a team like Kansas that has a sizable spread and is expected to push the pace.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaden Bradley's recent scoring average shows inconsistency, and there's no available data indicating he has exceeded 13.5 points frequently in past matchups against strong defenses like Kansas.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks' strong defensive lineup might limit Bradley's opportunities, especially considering their recent performance where they effectively contained opposing guards.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread favoring Arizona by 8.5 points, it's likely that the game will lead to a different flow, which may not suit Bradley playing aggressively and thus scoring high points.
- →TREND: Bradley has shown fluctuating form in his scoring, and the recent outcomes indicate he might struggle to find rhythm against competitive teams, suggesting he may not have enough offensive production.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Arizona possibly entering a high-scoring game, there’s a chance that ball distribution could favor other key scorers on the team, thereby limiting Bradley's opportunity to take the necessary shots to exceed 13.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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