Back to Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
Koa Peat Under 12.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-128— stable
player points
Koa Peat Under 12.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-128— stable
player points
23.40
Composite Score
-4.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
13.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expectation for this game is a competitive narrative where scoring opportunities may be limited for Koa Peat due to Kansas' strong defensive capabilities. The evidence from the pro agent highlights Peat's struggles against top competition and the potential blowout narrative, whereas the anti agent points to favorable matchups that are not consistent with the overall game script expected. Given the Net EV of -0.04, which indicates the bet may be overpriced, it's best to avoid this wager altogether.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Koa Peat has struggled to consistently score in games against top-ranked opponents, which suggests he may not reach his points threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks play solid defense, ranking highly in opponent points per game, which will likely limit Peat's scoring opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5, this indicates a potential blowout, limiting Peat's minutes and thus his chances to score.
- →TREND: In recent games against tough competition, Peat has averaged under 12.5 points, indicating an overall downward trend in his scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: Arizona Wildcats' potential load management for key players or the possibility of a reduced role for Peat in a high-stakes game could further inhibit his ability to score.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Koa Peat has been showing promising scoring efficiency recently, indicating he can easily surpass the 12.5 points threshold in this high-scoring matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks are known to struggle defensively against versatile forwards, providing a favorable matchup for Peat to exploit his scoring ability.
- →NARRATIVE: The spread indicating Arizona as -8.5 suggests a competitive game, which typically allows starters like Peat more minutes and opportunities to score.
- →TREND: Peat's recent performances have shown a trend of increasing scoring, and with Arizona's high-paced offense, he could see numerous chances to exceed 12.5 points.
- →SITUATIONAL: Arizona's strong home record of 14-1 and their current momentum from a 3-game winning streak provides a favorable environment for Peat to shine offensively.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Koa Peat has struggled to consistently score in games against top-ranked opponents, which suggests he may not reach his points threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks play solid defense, ranking highly in opponent points per game, which will likely limit Peat's scoring opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5, this indicates a potential blowout, limiting Peat's minutes and thus his chances to score.
- →TREND: In recent games against tough competition, Peat has averaged under 12.5 points, indicating an overall downward trend in his scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: Arizona Wildcats' potential load management for key players or the possibility of a reduced role for Peat in a high-stakes game could further inhibit his ability to score.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available