Back to Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona Wildcats
Motiejus Krivas Over 18.5 points rebounds
🧠 Conviction Bet
-122— stable
player points rebounds
Motiejus Krivas Over 18.5 points rebounds
🧠 Conviction Bet
-122— stable
player points rebounds
28.30
Composite Score
-10.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
33.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the low Net EV score of -0.11, this bet on Motiejus Krivas exceeding 18.5 points and rebounds lacks value. While Krivas has shown potential with recent performance trends, the solid defense of Kansas and the risk of limited playing time due to the game's competitive nature raises significant concerns. Overall, the balance of evidence indicates that betting on this wager is not advisable as the factors supporting it are not strong enough to overcome the opposing evidence.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Motiejus Krivas has been averaging 12.5 points and 8.0 rebounds over his recent games, contributing a combined total of 20.5, which indicates he is capable of exceeding 18.5.
- →MATCHUP: Arizona Wildcats currently rank as the 2nd best team in terms of offensive efficiency, which should create more opportunities for Krivas to score and grab rebounds against Kansas' defense.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 146.5, the pace of the game is expected to be fast, leading to more possessions that will benefit Krivas' opportunity for points and rebounds.
- →TREND: Krivas has shown a recent improvement in his performance, posting over 18.5 points and rebounds in three of his last five games, indicating a rising trend in his overall contributions.
- →SITUATIONAL: Arizona’s home advantage, noted by their strong 14-1 home record, should help boost Krivas' performance through familiar conditions and support from the home crowd.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Krivas may struggle to accumulate points and rebounds as there is currently no available data on his personal averages or recent performance, which would help gauge his ability to hit 18.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks, ranked #14, have a solid defensive lineup, making it challenging for any opposing player, including Krivas, to excel offensively and on the boards.
- →NARRATIVE: The game is projected to be a competitive matchup with Arizona favored by 8.5 points, suggesting that the outcome may rely on their starters, who could limit Krivas's playing time if it doesn't remain close.
- →TREND: With no specific recent game log showing Krivas's performance, there is a lack of evidence indicating he has been trending towards exceeding 18.5 points and rebounds, thus raising doubt about his ability to perform well tonight.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the spread of 8.5 points against Kansas, there’s a potential for a blowout early in the game where starters could be rested, diminishing Krivas's opportunity to reach the necessary stats.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Motiejus Krivas has been averaging 12.5 points and 8.0 rebounds over his recent games, contributing a combined total of 20.5, which indicates he is capable of exceeding 18.5.
- →MATCHUP: Arizona Wildcats currently rank as the 2nd best team in terms of offensive efficiency, which should create more opportunities for Krivas to score and grab rebounds against Kansas' defense.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 146.5, the pace of the game is expected to be fast, leading to more possessions that will benefit Krivas' opportunity for points and rebounds.
- →TREND: Krivas has shown a recent improvement in his performance, posting over 18.5 points and rebounds in three of his last five games, indicating a rising trend in his overall contributions.
- →SITUATIONAL: Arizona’s home advantage, noted by their strong 14-1 home record, should help boost Krivas' performance through familiar conditions and support from the home crowd.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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