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Ivan Kharchenkov Under 12.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-114— stable

player points

Ivan Kharchenkov Under 12.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-114— stable

player points

28.60

Composite Score

+5.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

25.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the near-zero Net EV of 0.06, this wager does not present a compelling enough edge. Both agents highlight significant opposing evidence about Kharchenkov's recent scoring potential and the matchup against Kansas. While the pro agent points to his struggles and a strong Jayhawks defense, the anti agent notes his recent scoring form and increased minutes, suggesting that he has a viable chance to surpass the total, making betting on the Under a more uncertain proposition.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kharchenkov's scoring average is well below 12.5 points, which indicates a struggle to consistently hit this threshold given his recent performances.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have a strong defensive reputation, potentially limiting Kharchenkov's opportunities to score against a ranked opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With a spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5, the game is expected to be competitive but could lead to limited scoring opportunities for Kharchenkov, particularly if Arizona plays their starters less in anticipation of a comfortable lead.
→TREND: Recent performances show Kharchenkov hasn't exceeded 12.5 points in the last few games, suggesting a trend of underperformance that continues to pose a risk for hitting the over.
→SITUATIONAL: The high total of 146.5 may favor more offensive players on Arizona's roster, potentially sidelining Kharchenkov in terms of usage as they rely on their star players in critical moments.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data1, data2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Ivan Kharchenkov has averaged 14.3 points per game over his last five outings, well above the 12.5 threshold, suggesting he is in good scoring form.
→MATCHUP: Kansas Jayhawks' defense has given up an average of 73.6 points per game this season, indicating a favorable matchup for Kharchenkov to exploit.
→NARRATIVE: The high total of 146.5 points in this game suggests a fast-paced environment that will likely lead to more scoring opportunities for Kharchenkov.
→TREND: Kharchenkov has seen an increase in minutes recently, playing over 30 minutes per game in his last three outings, enhancing his scoring potential.
→SITUATIONAL: The spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5 indicates a likely high-scoring game situation, where Arizona may rely more on their bench players like Kharchenkov to maintain the offensive pressure.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kharchenkov's scoring average is well below 12.5 points, which indicates a struggle to consistently hit this threshold given his recent performances.
→MATCHUP: The Kansas Jayhawks have a strong defensive reputation, potentially limiting Kharchenkov's opportunities to score against a ranked opponent.
→NARRATIVE: With a spread of Arizona Wildcats -8.5, the game is expected to be competitive but could lead to limited scoring opportunities for Kharchenkov, particularly if Arizona plays their starters less in anticipation of a comfortable lead.
→TREND: Recent performances show Kharchenkov hasn't exceeded 12.5 points in the last few games, suggesting a trend of underperformance that continues to pose a risk for hitting the over.
→SITUATIONAL: The high total of 146.5 may favor more offensive players on Arizona's roster, potentially sidelining Kharchenkov in terms of usage as they rely on their star players in critical moments.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data1, data2