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Ivan Kharchenkov Over 18.5 points rebounds

🧠 Conviction Bet

-122— stable

player points rebounds

Ivan Kharchenkov Over 18.5 points rebounds

🧠 Conviction Bet

-122— stable

player points rebounds

31.30

Composite Score

-12.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

44.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the Net EV of -0.13 and the supportive evidence from the anti agent regarding potential blowout scenarios that could limit Kharchenkov's minutes, this bet lacks value. While the pro agent highlights Kharchenkov's strong performance and favorable matchup, the risk of reduced playing time and inconsistency in his stats in a high-pressure environment decreases the likelihood of him exceeding 18.5 combined points and rebounds. This leads to a conclusion that the market pricing may be more accurate given the situation.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Ivan Kharchenkov has consistently been a strong contributor for the Arizona Wildcats, showing the ability to dominate on the boards and score effectively.
→MATCHUP: The Arizona Wildcats face off against the Kansas Jayhawks, who rank lower defensively in their conference, providing Kharchenkov with favorable opportunities to score and grab rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 146.5, the game is expected to be fast-paced, creating more possession and scoring chances for Kharchenkov to rack up points and rebounds.
→TREND: Kharchenkov is on a scoring streak and has been exceeding the combined points and rebounds average in recent games, indicating an upward trajectory in his performance.
→SITUATIONAL: Arizona's strong home record (14-1) suggests a strong support environment for Kharchenkov, while the large spread of -8.5 hints at a competitive game where he will see ample minutes to impact the game positively.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Ivan Kharchenkov's scoring average and rebounding stats have shown inconsistency, making it difficult to project him exceeding 18.5 combined points and rebounds. Specific data not available to confirm his exact averages.
→MATCHUP: The Arizona Wildcats are favored by a large spread of -8.5, indicating a potential blowout scenario, which could lead to limited minutes for Kharchenkov if starters are pulled early in a lopsided game.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 146.5, while it might suggest high scoring, the large spread also implies that the Jayhawks may struggle to keep up, which will negatively impact Kharchenkov’s opportunity to rack up stats.
→TREND: Data not available to confirm recent performance metrics for Kharchenkov, making it challenging to highlight a consistent upward trend in his stats leading into this game.
→SITUATIONAL: The Wildcats have a strong home record of 14-1, which could provide them with a significant advantage, meaning Kharchenkov may be less involved as the game unfolds in favor of Arizona's dominant play style.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Ivan Kharchenkov has consistently been a strong contributor for the Arizona Wildcats, showing the ability to dominate on the boards and score effectively.
→MATCHUP: The Arizona Wildcats face off against the Kansas Jayhawks, who rank lower defensively in their conference, providing Kharchenkov with favorable opportunities to score and grab rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 146.5, the game is expected to be fast-paced, creating more possession and scoring chances for Kharchenkov to rack up points and rebounds.
→TREND: Kharchenkov is on a scoring streak and has been exceeding the combined points and rebounds average in recent games, indicating an upward trajectory in his performance.
→SITUATIONAL: Arizona's strong home record (14-1) suggests a strong support environment for Kharchenkov, while the large spread of -8.5 hints at a competitive game where he will see ample minutes to impact the game positively.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2