SAL 9000
SAL 9000
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Cleveland CavaliersCleveland Cavaliers37-23 #4
@
Detroit PistonsDetroit Pistons43-14 #1
Live
Sat, Feb 28 • 12:13 AM|✓2/27 10:40 PM|663 wagers• 1052 props
Game Lines
SPR
ML
O/U
Cavaliers
💤-105-105 (+5.5)↓9%
💤+200+200—
💤-110-110 (227.5)—
Pistons
💤-115-115 (-5.5)↑10%
💤-235-235↓6%
🧠-110-110 (227.5)—

Key Themes

Read full game script

SAL's Picks

🔒 SAL's Lock🧠 T2

Total Under 227.5

The recommendation to bet on the Under 227.5 aligns with the expected narrative of a lower-scoring matchup, particularly given the Cleveland Cavaliers’ strong defensive capabilities and...

-110+2.8% EVScore: 44%
Premium Parlay3-Leg

Reed's Rising Trio

1.Jarrett Allen Over 14.5 rebounds alternate
2.Paul Reed Jr Over 24.5 points rebounds alternate
3.Ausar Thompson Over 24.5 points rebounds assists alternate
+207+36.5% EV
🌖 Moon Shot🚀 T3

Tobias Harris double double

Considering the expected fast-paced game between the Cavaliers and Pistons, Tobias Harris has a reasonable chance of achieving a double-double due to his recent offensive output and...

+1000+7.5% EVScore: 52%

📊Analysis Quality(5 actionable / 1070 total)

Conviction Bet
Count: 5 (0%)
Avg EV: -0.1%
Range: -13.6% - 16.2%
Asymmetric Shot
Count: 11 (1%)
Avg EV: 8.8%
Range: 1.0% - 18.1%
💤 1054
Noise Bet
Count: 1054 (99%)
Avg EV: -0.5%
Range: -83.0% - 64.2%
🎯Core
0 (0%)
🧠Conviction
5 (0%)
🚀Asymmetric
11 (1%)
💤Noise
1054 (99%)

Tier Distribution by Prop Type

Prop Type
🎯T1
🧠T2
🚀T3
💤T4
Total
Points
–2–475477
Rebounds
–1–199200
3-Pointers
–––103103
Assists
–1–8283
Steals
–––4040
Total040899903
Intensity = count relative to max
T1-3 (Heat)
T4 (Ice)
🦎

SAL's Game Script

Full betting analysis and game context

Cleveland enters this game fundamentally crippled on the offensive end. James Harden's absence removes not just 22.8 PPG but an elite playmaker averaging 7.0 assists and 41% from three over his last five games—offensive gravity that forces defenses to respect the perimeter. Donovan Mitchell's injury removes the secondary shot-creator Cleveland desperately needs to maintain floor spacing. Together, these absences represent roughly 50 points of combined creation and scoring that no role player can realistically replace. Detroit's defense, designed around interior dominance and perimeter discipline, is now facing exactly the scenario they're built to punish: a spacing-less opponent forced to operate exclusively through pick-and-roll with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the post. The matchup advantages heavily favor Detroit across multiple dimensions. Cade Cunningham (29 points vs. Oklahoma City recently) operates freely against a Cleveland perimeter defense now missing Mitchell's energy. Tobias Harris, shooting 60.6% from the field and 100% from the free throw line over his last five games, creates spacing that forces Allen and Mobley into awkward perimeter defense, opening driving lanes. Jalen Duren anchors the paint with rim-running dominance that Cleveland cannot match, and Ausar Thompson's recent defensive activity (2.0 steals, 1.2 blocks per game last five) will...

Analysis generated 2/27/2026, 10:40:25 PM

📊SAL's Edge Analysis

EV81%Story50%Pro35%Bal63%Score42%
Edge over market odds
Fits game narrative
Bullish agent confidence
Pro vs Anti consensus
Overall quality metric
ConvictionPlayer Prop

Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists

+7.3%edge
vs All WagersTop 13%
vs ConvictionTop 20%
Elite edge among all analyzed wagers
Odds
+120
Implied
45%
SAL Est.
53%
EV
16.2%
1 of 16 wagers

Top Individual Bets(16 of 1070)

Book:
Bet
James Harden Double Double
+18.1%+240
🚀BetMGM • double double
🚀
James Harden Double Double
BetMGM • double double
+18.1%
44.70
+240
Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists
+16.2%+120
🧠BetMGM • assists
🧠
Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists
BetMGM • assists
+16.2%
41.50
+120
James Harden Double Double
+14.9%+207
🚀DraftKings • double double
🚀
James Harden Double Double
DraftKings • double double
+14.9%
40.40
+207
Ausar Thompson Double Double
+11.9%+2200
🚀DraftKings • double double
🚀
Ausar Thompson Double Double
DraftKings • double double
+11.9%
48.20
+2200
Tobias Harris Double Double
+9.4%+1420
🚀DraftKings • double double
🚀
Tobias Harris Double Double
DraftKings • double double
+9.4%
44.20
+1420
Jaylon Tyson Double Double
+9.2%+1380
🚀DraftKings • double double
🚀
Jaylon Tyson Double Double
DraftKings • double double
+9.2%
36.80
+1380
Jaylon Tyson Double Double
+7.9%+1150
🚀BetMGM • double double
🚀
Jaylon Tyson Double Double
BetMGM • double double
+7.9%
35.10
+1150
Tobias Harris Double Double
+7.5%+1000
🚀FanDuel • double double
🚀
Tobias Harris Double Double
FanDuel • double double
+7.5%
52.00
+1000
Paul Reed Jr Double Double
+7.1%+1000
🚀DraftKings • double double
🚀
Paul Reed Jr Double Double
DraftKings • double double
+7.1%
40.90
+1000
Jaylon Tyson Double Double
+5.6%+1200
🚀FanDuel • double double
🚀
Jaylon Tyson Double Double
FanDuel • double double
+5.6%
35.50
+1200
Ausar Thompson Double Double
+3.7%+1100
🚀FanDuel • double double
🚀
Ausar Thompson Double Double
FanDuel • double double
+3.7%
44.70
+1100
Dean Wade Over 4.5 rebounds
+3.6%+134
🧠FanDuel • rebounds
🧠
Dean Wade Over 4.5 rebounds
FanDuel • rebounds
+3.6%
24.60
+134
Total Under 227.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
+2.8%-110
🧠BetMGM • totals
🧠
Total Under 227.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
BetMGM • totals
+2.8%
43.90
-110
Paul Reed Jr Double Double
+1.0%+800
🚀FanDuel • double double
🚀
Paul Reed Jr Double Double
FanDuel • double double
+1.0%
36.70
+800
Dean Wade Over 5.5 points
-9.6%-114
🧠FanDuel • points
🧠
Dean Wade Over 5.5 points
FanDuel • points
-9.6%
29.20
-114
Dean Wade Over 9.5 points rebounds
-13.6%-122
🧠FanDuel • points rebounds
🧠
Dean Wade Over 9.5 points rebounds
FanDuel • points rebounds
-13.6%
33.10
-122
SAL 9000

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