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Ausar Thompson double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+2200↓26%|+460
player double double
Ausar Thompson double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+2200↓26%|+460
player double double
48.20
Composite Score
+11.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
46.30
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
While there are some positive indicators for Ausar Thompson achieving a double-double, including a high-scoring game narrative and the Cavaliers' tendency to allow rebounds, the underlying statistics and matchup considerations suggest that this is not a reliable play. Thompson's current averages are below the thresholds needed for a double-double, and the Cavaliers' strong defensive capabilities may further limit his effective output. Given the final Net EV of 0.12, it's best to avoid this wager as the associated risks outweigh potential benefits.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ausar Thompson averages 6.0 rebounds and 1.6 assists over his last five games, showing he is trending towards achieving a double-double with his increased output in rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers allow opponents to have a higher than average number of rebounds, making it more likely for Thompson to secure the boards necessary for a double-double.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game total of 227.5, a high-scoring game is expected, which typically sees players like Thompson accumulate more stats as possessions increase.
- →TREND: Thompson recorded a double-digit rebounding game with 12 boards against the Trail Blazers recently, indicating he has the capability to hit double figures in one category even with only moderate minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are in a strong position as the 1st seed with momentum, which often leads to players receiving more minutes, giving Thompson a greater opportunity to achieve the double-double if he plays increased minutes due to a competitive game.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ausar Thompson's recent averages show he is scoring 11.8 points, grabbing 6.0 rebounds, and recording 1.6 assists per game, all falling significantly short of the 10+ threshold required in multiple categories to achieve a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers, known for their strong defensive capabilities, are currently ranked among the top teams defensively, which will limit Thompson's scoring and rebounding opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be competitive, the close nature is likely to keep Thompson in the game longer than a blowout scenario, but hasn't historically translated to higher double-double probabilities given inconsistent minutes.
- →TREND: In the last five games Thompson has only achieved a double-double once, which is indicative of his inconsistent performance and inability to consistently hit 10+ points and rebounds in a single game.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons' strong performance and position in the playoff standings, they may limit Thompson's minutes to avoid overexerting him, particularly if their lead increases during the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ausar Thompson averages 6.0 rebounds and 1.6 assists over his last five games, showing he is trending towards achieving a double-double with his increased output in rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers allow opponents to have a higher than average number of rebounds, making it more likely for Thompson to secure the boards necessary for a double-double.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game total of 227.5, a high-scoring game is expected, which typically sees players like Thompson accumulate more stats as possessions increase.
- →TREND: Thompson recorded a double-digit rebounding game with 12 boards against the Trail Blazers recently, indicating he has the capability to hit double figures in one category even with only moderate minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are in a strong position as the 1st seed with momentum, which often leads to players receiving more minutes, giving Thompson a greater opportunity to achieve the double-double if he plays increased minutes due to a competitive game.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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