Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists
🧠 Conviction Bet
+120↓4%|+5
player assists
Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists
🧠 Conviction Bet
+120↓4%|+5
player assists
41.50
Composite Score
+16.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
62.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the expected game script favoring the Pistons to control the pace, Duncan Robinson is likely to face fewer opportunities to distribute assists. He has only averaged 1.0 assists over the last five games, and the Cavaliers' strong defense can limit assist production further. The Net EV of 0.16 illustrates that the market has underpriced this bet, aligning with the narrative of a low-assist output for Robinson in this particular matchup.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists per game in the last 5 games is only 1.0, significantly below the 1.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers have a strong defensive unit that specifically limits opposing assist distribution, making it challenging for Robinson to find open teammates.
- →NARRATIVE: The game script is likely to favor the Pistons to control the pace, which could lead to fewer opportunities for Robinson to facilitate plays, limiting his assist chances.
- →TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson recorded only 1 assist, demonstrating a consistent struggle to meet this threshold against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 1-game winning streak and are currently 1st in their division, suggesting a high-pressure environment that may further reduce Robinson's effectiveness and minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 2.4 assists per game this season, which is significantly higher than the 1.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons allow a pace of play that is conducive to more scoring opportunities, enhancing the likelihood of assists as players like Robinson get involved in ball movement.
- →NARRATIVE: A high total of 227.5 indicates an expectation for a fast-paced and high-scoring contest, which would correlate with increased assist opportunities for Robinson.
- →TREND: In Robinson's last matchup against the Detroit Pistons, he recorded 2 assists, showing he can hit the over against this team based on previous performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a winning streak and the game being competitive, this suggests more minutes for key players like Robinson, increasing the chances he exceeds the 1.5 assist mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists per game in the last 5 games is only 1.0, significantly below the 1.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers have a strong defensive unit that specifically limits opposing assist distribution, making it challenging for Robinson to find open teammates.
- →NARRATIVE: The game script is likely to favor the Pistons to control the pace, which could lead to fewer opportunities for Robinson to facilitate plays, limiting his assist chances.
- →TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson recorded only 1 assist, demonstrating a consistent struggle to meet this threshold against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 1-game winning streak and are currently 1st in their division, suggesting a high-pressure environment that may further reduce Robinson's effectiveness and minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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