Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+110↓5%|+5
player threes
Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+110↓5%|+5
player threes
31.50
Composite Score
+8.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
33.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, while there are arguments both for and against Robinson hitting more than 2.5 threes, the overall narrative does not lean strongly toward either side to justify a bet. The Cavaliers' strong perimeter defense and Robinson's recent struggles limit his opportunities, while the higher game total suggests offense could be more efficient overall, which indirectly impacts his volume shooting. The Net EV score of 0.08 indicates a slight edge, but not enough to confidently place a wager given potential variance in outcomes.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 32.2%, significantly below the required average to exceed 2.5 made threes, indicating an overall struggle in this statistic.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Robinson's opportunities to get open shots, affecting his ability to make multiple threes in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 227.5 for the game, while it's considered high-scoring, this also indicates that both teams may focus on efficient shot selection, potentially reducing the volume of three-point attempts.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Robinson has averaged just 2.8 made field goals per game, and while he made a decent number of threes before, the recent trend shows a struggle to consistently hit more than two per game.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that Robinson averages only 23.6 minutes per game recently, limited playing time could restrict his opportunities to take enough shots to exceed 2.5 three-point makes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 2.8 FG Made/Game and has a 3P Percentage of 32.2% in his last 5 games, indicating a solid pace for hitting three-pointers.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have allowed a higher number of three-point attempts from opposing teams, which benefits a shooter like Robinson who thrives on perimeter shots.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game total of 227.5, a high-scoring contest is expected, which typically leads to more three-point opportunities for players like Robinson.
- →TREND: In his last match against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson had notable success, indicating he can perform well against this defense, which boosts his chances to exceed 2.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Detroit Pistons playing without key injuries and riding a winning streak, the competitive nature of the game will likely keep Robinson on the court for extended minutes, increasing his chances to hit threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 32.2%, significantly below the required average to exceed 2.5 made threes, indicating an overall struggle in this statistic.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Robinson's opportunities to get open shots, affecting his ability to make multiple threes in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 227.5 for the game, while it's considered high-scoring, this also indicates that both teams may focus on efficient shot selection, potentially reducing the volume of three-point attempts.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Robinson has averaged just 2.8 made field goals per game, and while he made a decent number of threes before, the recent trend shows a struggle to consistently hit more than two per game.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that Robinson averages only 23.6 minutes per game recently, limited playing time could restrict his opportunities to take enough shots to exceed 2.5 three-point makes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
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