Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
-113↑206%|-220
player assists
Duncan Robinson Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
-113↑206%|-220
player assists
37.70
Composite Score
+13.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
51.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Duncan Robinson is projected to struggle with assists against the Cavaliers due to their strong defensive unit, which limits assist distribution, coupled with his recent performance averaging only 1.0 assists in the last five games. The narrative of the game points towards the Pistons controlling the pace, which, combined with Robinson's historical troubles against this team, solidifies the expectation that he will not exceed 1.5 assists. The positive Net EV of 0.13 indicates a favorable pricing from the bookmaker and supports this bet as underpriced based on current performance and matchup context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists per game in the last 5 games is only 1.0, significantly below the 1.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers have a strong defensive unit that specifically limits opposing assist distribution, making it challenging for Robinson to find open teammates.
- →NARRATIVE: The game script is likely to favor the Pistons to control the pace, which could lead to fewer opportunities for Robinson to facilitate plays, limiting his assist chances.
- →TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson recorded only 1 assist, demonstrating a consistent struggle to meet this threshold against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 1-game winning streak and are currently 1st in their division, suggesting a high-pressure environment that may further reduce Robinson's effectiveness and minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 2.4 assists per game this season, which is significantly higher than the 1.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons allow a pace of play that is conducive to more scoring opportunities, enhancing the likelihood of assists as players like Robinson get involved in ball movement.
- →NARRATIVE: A high total of 227.5 indicates an expectation for a fast-paced and high-scoring contest, which would correlate with increased assist opportunities for Robinson.
- →TREND: In Robinson's last matchup against the Detroit Pistons, he recorded 2 assists, showing he can hit the over against this team based on previous performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a winning streak and the game being competitive, this suggests more minutes for key players like Robinson, increasing the chances he exceeds the 1.5 assist mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists per game in the last 5 games is only 1.0, significantly below the 1.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers have a strong defensive unit that specifically limits opposing assist distribution, making it challenging for Robinson to find open teammates.
- →NARRATIVE: The game script is likely to favor the Pistons to control the pace, which could lead to fewer opportunities for Robinson to facilitate plays, limiting his assist chances.
- →TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson recorded only 1 assist, demonstrating a consistent struggle to meet this threshold against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 1-game winning streak and are currently 1st in their division, suggesting a high-pressure environment that may further reduce Robinson's effectiveness and minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available