Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

Evan Mobley Under 0.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+154↓10%|+14

player threes

Evan Mobley Under 0.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+154↓10%|+14

player threes

40.50

Composite Score

+14.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

60.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, the expectation is that Cleveland's game plan will lean towards a more inside-oriented offense, which aligns with Evan Mobley's struggles to find open three-point opportunities. The combination of Detroit's strong defensive frontcourt and Mobley's declining effectiveness from beyond the arc reinforces the likelihood of him hitting the Under on 0.5 threes. The Net EV of 0.14 suggests that the market has undervalued this bet, providing a solid opportunity to capitalize on these trends.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: In the last 5 games, Evan Mobley has averaged just 4.2 three-point attempts per game, indicating he often doesn't prioritize taking three-pointers.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong defensive frontcourt, making it challenging for a center like Mobley to find open three-point opportunities, especially with defenders closing out quickly.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 225.5 and Detroit favored by 6 points, the game script may favor a more inside-oriented offense, reducing Mobley's chances of exceeding 0.5 threes.
→TREND: Mobley has only made an average of 0.8 three-pointers in his last 5 games, which suggests a decline in his long-range shooting effectiveness and likelihood of hitting this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Cleveland’s reliance on traditional post-play means that Mobley may not have many opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc, especially in a game situation where quick scoring is necessary.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Evan Mobley has averaged 4.2 three-point attempts per game over the last 5 games, indicating he is actively participating in three-point shooting opportunities.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are allowing a high number of three-point attempts, making it a favorable matchup for Mobley to exceed 0.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high game total of 225.5 and the spread favoring the Pistons, the game script is likely to involve a fast pace, creating more opportunities for Mobley to shoot threes.
→TREND: Mobley has consistently shot with a 37.0% three-point percentage this season, which supports the likelihood of his exceeding the threshold of 0.5 threes made.
→SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries for the Cavaliers, Mobley is expected to play a significant role in a competitive game, maximizing his minutes and resulting in higher chances to hit his three-point shots.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: In the last 5 games, Evan Mobley has averaged just 4.2 three-point attempts per game, indicating he often doesn't prioritize taking three-pointers.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong defensive frontcourt, making it challenging for a center like Mobley to find open three-point opportunities, especially with defenders closing out quickly.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 225.5 and Detroit favored by 6 points, the game script may favor a more inside-oriented offense, reducing Mobley's chances of exceeding 0.5 threes.
→TREND: Mobley has only made an average of 0.8 three-pointers in his last 5 games, which suggests a decline in his long-range shooting effectiveness and likelihood of hitting this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Cleveland’s reliance on traditional post-play means that Mobley may not have many opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc, especially in a game situation where quick scoring is necessary.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2