Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Evan Mobley Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+145↑6%|-10
player threes
Evan Mobley Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+145↑6%|-10
player threes
32.60
Composite Score
+9.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
36.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the projected game pace and the Pistons' strong perimeter defense, it's likely Mobley will focus on scoring inside rather than attempting three-pointers. His recent struggles from beyond the arc, along with the team's potential adjustment towards interior play, greatly enhance the chances of him staying under 0.5 made threes. The positive Net EV of 0.09 indicates that this bet is slightly undervalued by the market, which supports this leaning toward the Under.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Evan Mobley has been struggling from beyond the arc, averaging only 15.2% on three-pointers over the last five games, making it extremely unlikely for him to hit even one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong defensive presence, which could limit Mobley's attempts from the three-point range and force him to work within the paint where he is less reliant on shooting from distance.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's projected pace and the Pistons' ability to defend the perimeter, it's likely Mobley will focus more on his scoring inside rather than hunting for threes, decreasing his likelihood of exceeding 0.5.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Mobley has hit a total of only 1 three-pointer, suggesting a pattern of underperformance in this area, making it unlikely he will suddenly break out in this game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Cavaliers are coming off a recent loss and may adjust their game plan, prioritizing interior scoring with Mobley, potentially reducing his chances of attempting and making three-pointers.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Evan Mobley's 3P% is 37.0% for the season, which indicates that he is capable of successfully making more than 0.5 three-pointers when given the opportunity.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers' offensive scheme often creates open looks for perimeter players against teams like the Detroit Pistons, who can struggle defensively beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 227.5, the expected high-scoring nature of this matchup suggests more opportunities for Mobley to attempt and make three-pointers.
- →TREND: Although Mobley's recent 3P% in the last five games is lower at 15.2%, he has shown periods of shooting better, indicating he may break out of this slump soon.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Cavaliers are coming off a loss and are likely to be more aggressive offensively to secure a win, giving Mobley more chances to exceed the threshold of 0.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Evan Mobley has been struggling from beyond the arc, averaging only 15.2% on three-pointers over the last five games, making it extremely unlikely for him to hit even one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong defensive presence, which could limit Mobley's attempts from the three-point range and force him to work within the paint where he is less reliant on shooting from distance.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's projected pace and the Pistons' ability to defend the perimeter, it's likely Mobley will focus more on his scoring inside rather than hunting for threes, decreasing his likelihood of exceeding 0.5.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Mobley has hit a total of only 1 three-pointer, suggesting a pattern of underperformance in this area, making it unlikely he will suddenly break out in this game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Cavaliers are coming off a recent loss and may adjust their game plan, prioritizing interior scoring with Mobley, potentially reducing his chances of attempting and making three-pointers.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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