Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+108↓5%|+5
player threes
Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+108↓5%|+5
player threes
30.80
Composite Score
+8.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
31.30
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This wager on Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 three-pointers is a pass due to the conflicting narratives surrounding game pace and Robinson's shooting role. While the pro analysis points to the Cavaliers' strong perimeter defense and limited opportunities because of the projected fewer possessions, the anti analysis highlights Robinson's high volume of attempts and favorable offensive context with a high game total. The final Net EV of 0.09 suggests a slight edge, but the opposing narratives make this a less compelling bet considering both agents provide strong support for their views.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged only 2.0 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, which is below the threshold of 2.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Cavaliers are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Robinson's opportunities to get open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game spread favoring the Pistons by 6.5 points, it is likely that the game script could lead to fewer overall possessions, negatively impacting Robinson's chances to exceed his three-point total.
- →TREND: In his recent outings against the Cavaliers, Robinson has typically fallen short of this three-point mark, showing a pattern of underperformance in similar matchups.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high-stakes nature of this game, combined with Robinson's limited minutes per game (24.1), suggests he may not see enough floor time to hit the over on three-pointers.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson averages 5.8 three-point attempts per game, indicating a strong likelihood of hitting at least 3 three-pointers given his shooting percentage of 39.3%.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are known for a fast-paced style, which could create more open looks for Robinson, allowing him to maximize his three-point opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 227.5, the increased pace and offensive opportunities favor higher scoring, making it more likely for Robinson to hit the over on three-pointers.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Robinson has consistently taken a significant number of three-point attempts, averaging 5.8, which underlines his role as a shooter on the team.
- →SITUATIONAL: The spread of Detroit Pistons -6.5 suggests they are expected to be competitive, likely keeping the starters on the court longer and giving Robinson more chances to attempt threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged only 2.0 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, which is below the threshold of 2.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Cavaliers are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Robinson's opportunities to get open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game spread favoring the Pistons by 6.5 points, it is likely that the game script could lead to fewer overall possessions, negatively impacting Robinson's chances to exceed his three-point total.
- →TREND: In his recent outings against the Cavaliers, Robinson has typically fallen short of this three-point mark, showing a pattern of underperformance in similar matchups.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high-stakes nature of this game, combined with Robinson's limited minutes per game (24.1), suggests he may not see enough floor time to hit the over on three-pointers.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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