Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks

Myles Turner Under 1.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+106— stable

player threes

Myles Turner Under 1.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+106— stable

player threes

27.70

Composite Score

+5.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

22.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, the narrative points towards a lower-scoring game given the total of 218.5, which typically reduces three-point attempts. Myles Turner's recent trend of averaging only 0.6 made threes in the last five games, combined with the Knicks' strong perimeter defense, suggests he may struggle to hit 1.5 threes. While the Net EV of 0.06 indicates a slight edge, the risk associated with low shot attempts and defensive matchups makes this bet less compelling overall.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Myles Turner has recently averaged only 0.6 three-pointers made over the last five games (not exceeding 1.5) with a 3P percentage of 34.6%, which is below average for a consistent three-point shooter.
→MATCHUP: The New York Knicks have a strong defensive perimeter presence, which could limit Turner's attempts and success from beyond the arc, especially as they focus on protecting against effective shooters.
→NARRATIVE: This game features a total of 218.5, suggesting a potential for lower scoring, which typically results in fewer three-point attempts as teams may focus on more efficient scoring methods closer to the basket.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Turner has only hit 1 or fewer three-pointers in four out of the five games, indicating a downward trend in shooting frequency and effectiveness from deep.
→SITUATIONAL: The spread of +8.5 indicates that the Milwaukee Bucks are likely to be behind in the game, which could result in limited minutes for Turner if he is not contributing significantly on the offensive end.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Myles Turner has a 3P% of 39.6% for the season, indicating strong shooting ability from beyond the arc, and he has averaged 3.4 FG made per game, suggesting opportunities to hit three-pointers.
→MATCHUP: The Bucks' defense allows a significant number of three-point attempts, which should give Turner opportunities to exploit, especially as a stretch big against opposing frontcourt players.
→NARRATIVE: The high total of 218.5 indicates a fast-paced game, which typically leads to more possessions and shot opportunities, increasing the likelihood that Turner will surpass 1.5 threes.
→TREND: In recent games, Turner registered a 3P% of 34.6 over the last five games, which, when combined with an increase in minutes played, suggests he is likely to see enough shot attempts to exceed the 1.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The large spread of +8.5 suggests the Bucks may be in catch-up mode, leading to increased three-point shooting across the team, which could also benefit Turner and give him additional scoring chances.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Myles Turner has recently averaged only 0.6 three-pointers made over the last five games (not exceeding 1.5) with a 3P percentage of 34.6%, which is below average for a consistent three-point shooter.
→MATCHUP: The New York Knicks have a strong defensive perimeter presence, which could limit Turner's attempts and success from beyond the arc, especially as they focus on protecting against effective shooters.
→NARRATIVE: This game features a total of 218.5, suggesting a potential for lower scoring, which typically results in fewer three-point attempts as teams may focus on more efficient scoring methods closer to the basket.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Turner has only hit 1 or fewer three-pointers in four out of the five games, indicating a downward trend in shooting frequency and effectiveness from deep.
→SITUATIONAL: The spread of +8.5 indicates that the Milwaukee Bucks are likely to be behind in the game, which could result in limited minutes for Turner if he is not contributing significantly on the offensive end.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available