Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes
🧠 Conviction Bet
-120— stable
player threes
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes
🧠 Conviction Bet
-120— stable
player threes
50.90
Composite Score
+8.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
27.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expectation for this game is a moderately high-scoring affair given the total of 218.5 and the Knicks facing a Bucks team with lower defensive efficiency. Brunson's significant playing time and upward trend in three-point shooting, despite some recent inconsistencies, suggest he will have ample opportunities to exceed his 2.5 three-pointers made. The Net EV of 0.08 indicates a reasonable edge, supporting a more favorable probability than what the bookmaker has set.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jalen Brunson has been averaging 31.0 points per game over the last 5 games, and with a 3P% of 35.7%, it suggests an upward trend in his long-range shooting ability that is critical for exceeding 2.5 three-pointers made.
- →MATCHUP: The Knicks are facing the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank lower in defensive efficiency, giving Brunson higher opportunities to convert his three-point attempts.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 218.5, we anticipate a relatively high-scoring game, increasing the likelihood that Brunson will have more chances to shoot threes.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Brunson has consistently played significant minutes, averaging 38.2 minutes, which translates to greater opportunities to shoot and make three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the spread at Milwaukee Bucks +8.5, there may be a competitive game atmosphere leading to potential close game scenarios that encourage Brunson to take more shots, including from beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jalen Brunson's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 35.7% over the last 5 games, suggesting difficulty in consistently hitting 3-pointers.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have a strong defensive presence, particularly against perimeter shooters, which may limit Brunson’s opportunities to make three-pointers.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high spread of 8.5 points favoring the Bucks, a potential blowout could lead to Brunson playing fewer minutes and hence fewer shot attempts from three.
- →TREND: Brunson has averaged just 2.2 made three-pointers in his last 5 games, which is below the 2.5 threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are coming off a loss and may focus more on defensive strategies in a difficult away game, potentially reducing Brunson's shooting opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jalen Brunson has been averaging 31.0 points per game over the last 5 games, and with a 3P% of 35.7%, it suggests an upward trend in his long-range shooting ability that is critical for exceeding 2.5 three-pointers made.
- →MATCHUP: The Knicks are facing the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank lower in defensive efficiency, giving Brunson higher opportunities to convert his three-point attempts.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 218.5, we anticipate a relatively high-scoring game, increasing the likelihood that Brunson will have more chances to shoot threes.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Brunson has consistently played significant minutes, averaging 38.2 minutes, which translates to greater opportunities to shoot and make three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the spread at Milwaukee Bucks +8.5, there may be a competitive game atmosphere leading to potential close game scenarios that encourage Brunson to take more shots, including from beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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