Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks

Landry Shamet Under 1.5 threes

🧠 Conviction Bet

+152— stable

player threes

Landry Shamet Under 1.5 threes

🧠 Conviction Bet

+152— stable

player threes

40.00

Composite Score

+13.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

58.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the current matchup between the New York Knicks and the Milwaukee Bucks, the bet on Landry Shamet to go Under 1.5 three-pointers makes sense. With the Knicks possessing one of the league's top 3-point defenses and a low game total of 218.5 suggesting a slower pace, Shamet's scoring opportunities will likely be limited. The Net EV of 0.14 indicates that this bet is underpriced, reinforcing the expectation that Shamet won’t reach the 1.5 threshold even with the potential for competitive play.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Landry Shamet has made an average of only 1.4 threes per game over his last 5 games, which is below the 1.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The New York Knicks are ranked among the top teams in the league for 3-point defense, making it more difficult for Shamet to get open looks from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With the Milwaukee Bucks likely being significant underdogs (spread of +8.5), Shamet may not see as many opportunities to shoot 3-pointers if the game is decided by halftime, leading to fewer overall attempts.
→TREND: In the last matchup against the Knicks, Shamet only recorded 1 three-pointer, suggesting he has struggled against this specific opponent recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The total for the game is relatively low at 218.5, indicating a potentially slower-paced game that might lead to fewer overall 3-point shots taken, especially from a bench player like Shamet.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Landry Shamet has been averaging 1.4 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, indicating he is close to hitting the mark and can effectively push over 1.5 with increased usage.
→MATCHUP: The matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks is favorable for Shamet as they allow a higher three-point shooting percentage (37.0%) which should create ample opportunities for him to score from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: The game total of 218.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, which increases the likelihood of Shamet getting more open looks and hence exceeding 1.5 threes as both teams push the pace.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Shamet has shown improved performance, averaging 10.2 points and a 3P% of 37.0%, suggesting he is actively seeking his shot and finding success from range.
→SITUATIONAL: The Bucks stand as an underdog with a spread of +8.5, which could lead to a competitive game. Given that close games typically result in starters playing more minutes, Shamet’s increased on-court time could further enhance his chances of exceeding 1.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Landry Shamet has made an average of only 1.4 threes per game over his last 5 games, which is below the 1.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The New York Knicks are ranked among the top teams in the league for 3-point defense, making it more difficult for Shamet to get open looks from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With the Milwaukee Bucks likely being significant underdogs (spread of +8.5), Shamet may not see as many opportunities to shoot 3-pointers if the game is decided by halftime, leading to fewer overall attempts.
→TREND: In the last matchup against the Knicks, Shamet only recorded 1 three-pointer, suggesting he has struggled against this specific opponent recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The total for the game is relatively low at 218.5, indicating a potentially slower-paced game that might lead to fewer overall 3-point shots taken, especially from a bench player like Shamet.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2