Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Kyle Kuzma Over 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+170— stable
player threes
Kyle Kuzma Over 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+170— stable
player threes
32.00
Composite Score
+9.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
34.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script suggests a competitive, potentially high-scoring matchup as the spread indicates the Knicks are underdogs at +8.5, which means they will likely need to push the pace to stay in the game. Kuzma's recent 40% shooting from three and the Bucks' weaknesses in allowing three-point attempts provide a favorable environment for him to exceed 1.5 threes. The Net EV of 0.09, indicating a slight underpricing by the bookmaker, indicates there is potential value in this wager, but caution is warranted due to Kuzma's overall inconsistency this season.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Kuzma is shooting 40.0% from three-point range over his last five games, which is a significant increase from his season average of 30.7%, indicating improved shooting consistency.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks allow a high volume of three-point attempts, ranking near the bottom in defensive efficiency against the three-point shot, which creates a favorable environment for Kuzma to exceed 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread set at Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 and the total at 218.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more possessions and opportunities for Kuzma to attempt and make three-pointers.
- →TREND: In his recent matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, Kuzma played 31 minutes and registered significant shooting contributions, demonstrating he has the potential to hit multiple threes against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are on a two-game winning streak, potentially pushing the pace of the game. The competitive nature of the game could lead to Kuzma receiving increased minutes and opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Kuzma has a 3-point shooting percentage of only 30.7% this season and while he recently improved to 40.0% in his last 5 games, his overall inconsistency raises concerns about his ability to consistently hit more than 1.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Kuzma's opportunities to get open looks from beyond the arc, making it harder for him to exceed the 1.5 threes mark.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of +8.5 in favor of the Bucks, the game script suggests that the Knicks may find themselves trailing, which can lead to decreased ball movement and fewer chances for Kuzma to attempt threes as the team focuses on quicker scoring efforts.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games against the Bucks, Kuzma has not consistently found success in hitting threes, with his overall average over these games indicating that exceeding 1.5 is unlikely as he might not get enough attempts.
- →SITUATIONAL: Kuzma's average of 26.0 minutes per game in the last 5 contests shows a lurking risk of reduced playing time, particularly in blowout scenarios, further decreasing his chances to exceed 1.5 threes made.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: authoritative_player_stats, authoritative_team_data
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Kuzma is shooting 40.0% from three-point range over his last five games, which is a significant increase from his season average of 30.7%, indicating improved shooting consistency.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks allow a high volume of three-point attempts, ranking near the bottom in defensive efficiency against the three-point shot, which creates a favorable environment for Kuzma to exceed 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread set at Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 and the total at 218.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, leading to more possessions and opportunities for Kuzma to attempt and make three-pointers.
- →TREND: In his recent matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, Kuzma played 31 minutes and registered significant shooting contributions, demonstrating he has the potential to hit multiple threes against this opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are on a two-game winning streak, potentially pushing the pace of the game. The competitive nature of the game could lead to Kuzma receiving increased minutes and opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available