Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Myles Turner Under 4.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+118— stable
player rebounds
Myles Turner Under 4.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+118— stable
player rebounds
32.50
Composite Score
+9.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
36.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, the game narrative suggests a slower-paced contest with a total of 218.5, which typically limits rebound opportunities. Given Myles Turner's average of only 2.4 rebounds per game over the last five and the Bucks' robust rebounding presence, it's likely he will struggle to reach the 4.5 threshold. The Net EV of 0.09 indicates a slight edge in favor of the Under, verifying that the market may be underpricing this bet based on the outlined circumstances.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Myles Turner's recent performance shows he averaged only 2.4 rebounds per game over the last five games, significantly below the 4.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks present a challenging matchup, especially with their size and rebounding ability, which may reduce Turner's opportunities on the boards.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total at 218.5, this indicates a slower pace and potentially fewer possessions, limiting the number of rebound chances for Turner.
- →TREND: In their most recent encounter, Turner recorded only 2 rebounds against the Bucks, which highlights a trend of underperformance in rebounding against this team.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the large spread of 8.5 points favoring the Knicks, there is a risk of a blowout, which could lead to Turner playing fewer minutes and thus reducing his rebound opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Myles Turner is averaging 2.4 rebounds per game over the last five games, but has consistently played around 23.2 minutes, giving him opportunities to increase this total.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the New York Knicks is favorable as they struggle against opposing centers, which could lead to Turner grabbing more rebounds in a high-scoring game.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's expected high pace and Milwaukee's large spread (+8.5) suggests they will need to rely on their starting center, allowing Turner more minutes and chances to accumulate rebounds.
- →TREND: Historically, Turner has performed better against the Knicks, with rebound totals increasing in previous matchups; in the last five games against the Knicks, he has averaged 3 rebounds.
- →SITUATIONAL: Turner has been seeing an increase in usage as the Bucks gear up to push for playoff positioning, and with no injuries reported on either side, this should provide a stable environment that favors his rebounding numbers.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Myles Turner's recent performance shows he averaged only 2.4 rebounds per game over the last five games, significantly below the 4.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks present a challenging matchup, especially with their size and rebounding ability, which may reduce Turner's opportunities on the boards.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total at 218.5, this indicates a slower pace and potentially fewer possessions, limiting the number of rebound chances for Turner.
- →TREND: In their most recent encounter, Turner recorded only 2 rebounds against the Bucks, which highlights a trend of underperformance in rebounding against this team.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the large spread of 8.5 points favoring the Knicks, there is a risk of a blowout, which could lead to Turner playing fewer minutes and thus reducing his rebound opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available