Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Myles Turner Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player threes
Myles Turner Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player threes
27.40
Composite Score
+5.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
21.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expectation for a lower-scoring game with a total of 218.5 aligns with the pro agent's narrative that suggests limited three-point attempts for Myles Turner against a strong Knicks perimeter defense. While the Net EV of 0.06 indicates a slight edge, the anti agent raises valid points about Turner's shooting ability and the opportunities he may receive. Ultimately, the moderate nature of the EV combined with the narrative for a lower-scoring game suggests that this bet lacks enough convincing support to warrant a recommendation.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Myles Turner has recently averaged only 0.6 three-pointers made over the last five games (not exceeding 1.5) with a 3P percentage of 34.6%, which is below average for a consistent three-point shooter.
- →MATCHUP: The New York Knicks have a strong defensive perimeter presence, which could limit Turner's attempts and success from beyond the arc, especially as they focus on protecting against effective shooters.
- →NARRATIVE: This game features a total of 218.5, suggesting a potential for lower scoring, which typically results in fewer three-point attempts as teams may focus on more efficient scoring methods closer to the basket.
- →TREND: Over his last five games, Turner has only hit 1 or fewer three-pointers in four out of the five games, indicating a downward trend in shooting frequency and effectiveness from deep.
- →SITUATIONAL: The spread of +8.5 indicates that the Milwaukee Bucks are likely to be behind in the game, which could result in limited minutes for Turner if he is not contributing significantly on the offensive end.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: data not available
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Myles Turner has a 3P% of 39.6% for the season, indicating strong shooting ability from beyond the arc, and he has averaged 3.4 FG made per game, suggesting opportunities to hit three-pointers.
- →MATCHUP: The Bucks' defense allows a significant number of three-point attempts, which should give Turner opportunities to exploit, especially as a stretch big against opposing frontcourt players.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 218.5 indicates a fast-paced game, which typically leads to more possessions and shot opportunities, increasing the likelihood that Turner will surpass 1.5 threes.
- →TREND: In recent games, Turner registered a 3P% of 34.6 over the last five games, which, when combined with an increase in minutes played, suggests he is likely to see enough shot attempts to exceed the 1.5 mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: The large spread of +8.5 suggests the Bucks may be in catch-up mode, leading to increased three-point shooting across the team, which could also benefit Turner and give him additional scoring chances.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Myles Turner has recently averaged only 0.6 three-pointers made over the last five games (not exceeding 1.5) with a 3P percentage of 34.6%, which is below average for a consistent three-point shooter.
- →MATCHUP: The New York Knicks have a strong defensive perimeter presence, which could limit Turner's attempts and success from beyond the arc, especially as they focus on protecting against effective shooters.
- →NARRATIVE: This game features a total of 218.5, suggesting a potential for lower scoring, which typically results in fewer three-point attempts as teams may focus on more efficient scoring methods closer to the basket.
- →TREND: Over his last five games, Turner has only hit 1 or fewer three-pointers in four out of the five games, indicating a downward trend in shooting frequency and effectiveness from deep.
- →SITUATIONAL: The spread of +8.5 indicates that the Milwaukee Bucks are likely to be behind in the game, which could result in limited minutes for Turner if he is not contributing significantly on the offensive end.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: data not available
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