The market is pricing a competitive eight-point game, but that assumes both teams show up at baseline strength—they won't. Jamal Murray's absence creates a catastrophic playmaking void that Nikola Jokic cannot fill alone. Over his last five games, Murray was averaging 21.4 PPG with a 46.4% three-point rate and 6.8 assists per night. Without him, Denver reverts to a one-dimensional offense that OKC's league-leading defense (108.0 PPG allowed) is specifically built to suffocate. This isn't a marginal disadvantage; it's structural collapse. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's return from a nine-game absence due to abdominal strain completes Oklahoma City's offensive arsenal at exactly the right moment. The research is explicit: Thunder averaged below 110 points without SGA but rank among the league's highest scorers when healthy. That's a 12-15 point swing in offensive efficiency. Combined with Cason Wallace's disruptive perimeter defense (2.8 steals per game over his last five outings with recent sharp money steaming his defensive lines), OKC has weaponized both ends of the court simultaneously. Denver's backup point guards (Bruce Brown and Jalen Pickett) will be exploited relentlessly—neither provides Murray's quick-trigger offensive initiation, forcing Wallace into high-steal opportunities. The critical variable isn't whether Jokic will score; he will. The question is...