Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Total Under 233.5
🎯 Core Value Bet
-108↓2%|+2
totals
Total Under 233.5
🎯 Core Value Bet
-108↓2%|+2
totals
48.90
Composite Score
+6.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
26.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Betting the Under on a total of 233.5 makes sense given both teams' recent offensive trends, particularly the Nuggets who are currently scoring well below the line in their last few matchups. Moreover, the Thunder's strong emphasis on defense, especially against high-scoring teams, is likely to limit the overall scoring in this game. The Net EV of 0.06 suggests that the market may have slightly mispriced this total, aligning well with expectations of a lower-scoring affair.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: The average points scored by the Denver Nuggets in their last five games is considerably lower than the proposed total, indicating a decline in offensive production that makes exceeding 233.5 points unlikely.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder have shown a tendency to focus on strong defensive performances against high-scoring teams, which could limit the overall points scored in the game complemented by their recent loss where scoring was underwhelming.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a large gap (Thunder -8.0), this often suggests a more defensive approach from the favored team, which historically correlates with lower overall game totals as teams manage the tempo to control the game.
- →TREND: Both teams have had recent games where they struggled to score over the total, particularly the Nuggets, who have faced stronger defenses and managed lower-scoring affairs in critical matchups.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nuggets are coming off a recent win against the Boston Celtics but faced a tough game against the Golden State Warriors and now have the Thunder, a top team, which could lead to fatigue and a lack of scoring in a challenging road environment.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.nba.com, https://www.espn.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: The Denver Nuggets average 115 points per game while the Oklahoma City Thunder average 118 points, which makes for a combined scoring average of 233 points before considering defensive strengths.
- →MATCHUP: Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, and their scoring capabilities suggest that they are well-equipped to exploit defensive mismatches.
- →NARRATIVE: With a large spread of Oklahoma City Thunder -8.0, it indicates a high-scoring game is expected as the favored team likely needs to establish dominance early, leading to more possessions and scoring opportunities.
- →TREND: Both teams have recently been involved in several high-scoring affairs, which is evidenced by the Thunder's last games showing an average total that exceeds the 233.5 mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given both teams have no reported injuries, they will likely field their best players, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Additionally, the spread indicates confidence in offensive outputs, supporting a total that exceeds 233.5.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: The average points scored by the Denver Nuggets in their last five games is considerably lower than the proposed total, indicating a decline in offensive production that makes exceeding 233.5 points unlikely.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder have shown a tendency to focus on strong defensive performances against high-scoring teams, which could limit the overall points scored in the game complemented by their recent loss where scoring was underwhelming.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread indicating a large gap (Thunder -8.0), this often suggests a more defensive approach from the favored team, which historically correlates with lower overall game totals as teams manage the tempo to control the game.
- →TREND: Both teams have had recent games where they struggled to score over the total, particularly the Nuggets, who have faced stronger defenses and managed lower-scoring affairs in critical matchups.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nuggets are coming off a recent win against the Boston Celtics but faced a tough game against the Golden State Warriors and now have the Thunder, a top team, which could lead to fatigue and a lack of scoring in a challenging road environment.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.nba.com, https://www.espn.com
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