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Tim Hardaway Jr Under 11.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-130— stable

player points

Tim Hardaway Jr Under 11.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-130— stable

player points

22.40

Composite Score

-2.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

9.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the spread of -8.0 favoring the Oklahoma City Thunder, this game is likely to see the Thunder control the tempo, limiting Hardaway Jr.'s scoring opportunities. His average point total aligns closely with the line, and with a strong Nuggets defense against perimeter shooters, as well as a recent pattern where he has only exceeded 11 points once in his last five games, the case for the Under appears sound. The Net EV of -0.03 indicates that the bookmakers' pricing is relatively accurate, suggesting that this bet is more overpriced than underpriced, and thus it’s prudent to avoid it.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging only 11.0 points per game this season, which is already below the 11.5 points threshold he needs to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are known for their strong defensive performance, particularly against perimeter shooters, which could limit Hardaway Jr.'s scoring opportunities on the offensive end.
→NARRATIVE: With a spread of Oklahoma City Thunder -8.0, there's a high likelihood of a blowout, which means Hardaway Jr. may see reduced playing time if the game gets out of hand, negatively impacting his chance to score over 11.5 points.
→TREND: In the last five games, Hardaway Jr. has only scored above 11 points in one instance, indicating a recent pattern of underperformance relative to the threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Oklahoma City’s strong record of 45-15 suggests they are likely to control the game’s pace and tempo, further disadvantaging Hardaway Jr. in terms of scoring chances.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Tim Hardaway Jr. has averaged 11.0 points per game this season and recently scored 11 points against the Denver Nuggets in a previous matchup while logging significant minutes.
→MATCHUP: Hardaway has a favorable matchup as the Oklahoma City Thunder's perimeter defense can be vulnerable, which can allow him to get off quality shots, especially from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 233.5, the expected pace will likely lead to more possessions and scoring opportunities, increasing the chances for Hardaway to exceed 11.5 points.
→TREND: In his last five games, Hardaway has shown an upward trend in scoring, putting up solid numbers with an average of 11 points, indicating he is close and could surpass the threshold with increased opportunity.
→SITUATIONAL: The Thunder's large spread (-8.0) indicates a likely high-scoring game, which should keep Hardaway on the court longer, particularly in a situation where he may be contributing offensively in a competitive atmosphere.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging only 11.0 points per game this season, which is already below the 11.5 points threshold he needs to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are known for their strong defensive performance, particularly against perimeter shooters, which could limit Hardaway Jr.'s scoring opportunities on the offensive end.
→NARRATIVE: With a spread of Oklahoma City Thunder -8.0, there's a high likelihood of a blowout, which means Hardaway Jr. may see reduced playing time if the game gets out of hand, negatively impacting his chance to score over 11.5 points.
→TREND: In the last five games, Hardaway Jr. has only scored above 11 points in one instance, indicating a recent pattern of underperformance relative to the threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: Oklahoma City’s strong record of 45-15 suggests they are likely to control the game’s pace and tempo, further disadvantaging Hardaway Jr. in terms of scoring chances.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2