Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 12.5 points assists
🧠 Conviction Bet
-115— stable
player points assists
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 12.5 points assists
🧠 Conviction Bet
-115— stable
player points assists
36.50
Composite Score
-16.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
64.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The low Net EV score of -0.16 indicates that the bet on Hartenstein to go Over 12.5 points and assists is overpriced based on the current market assessment. Given the strong defensive capabilities of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Hartenstein's recent struggles in scoring and playmaking, it's likely that his opportunities will be limited, especially if the game gets out of hand due to the Thunder's significant -8.5 spread, which could reduce his playing time. These factors suggest that betting on this prop isn't justifiable at this time.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein has averaged 11.2 points and 3.8 assists per game this season, indicating his scoring and playmaking capabilities are above the threshold of 12.5 when combined.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing an average of 112 points per game, suggesting a conducive environment for scoring and generating assists against their defense.
- →NARRATIVE: A high-scoring game total of 232.5 implies that both teams are likely to push the pace, providing Hartenstein with more opportunities to accumulate points and assists.
- →TREND: In the last matchup against the Thunder, Hartenstein achieved 8 points and 3 assists in just 20 minutes, showing he can contribute effectively despite lower recent averages.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the spread is significant at Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5, this indicates the potential for a closer game where Hartenstein may see extended minutes to keep up with scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein's last 5 games show he averaged only 7.6 points and 1.6 assists, totaling 9.2 combined, which is significantly below the 12.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets are facing the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are strong defensively, likely limiting Hartenstein's scoring and assist opportunities throughout the game.
- →NARRATIVE: This game has a large spread (Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5), suggesting a potential blowout that could see Hartenstein’s minutes reduced if the game gets out of hand, limiting his stats.
- →TREND: Hartenstein has struggled with scoring and playmaking recently, failing to reach double digits in combined points and assists in 4 out of his last 5 games, indicating ongoing underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Hartenstein's average minutes per game in the last 5 is only 23.2, and if the game unfolds as predicted with the Thunder leading, he may not play significant minutes to surpass the 12.5 mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein has averaged 11.2 points and 3.8 assists per game this season, indicating his scoring and playmaking capabilities are above the threshold of 12.5 when combined.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing an average of 112 points per game, suggesting a conducive environment for scoring and generating assists against their defense.
- →NARRATIVE: A high-scoring game total of 232.5 implies that both teams are likely to push the pace, providing Hartenstein with more opportunities to accumulate points and assists.
- →TREND: In the last matchup against the Thunder, Hartenstein achieved 8 points and 3 assists in just 20 minutes, showing he can contribute effectively despite lower recent averages.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the spread is significant at Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5, this indicates the potential for a closer game where Hartenstein may see extended minutes to keep up with scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available