Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Jaylin Williams double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+2200↓16%|+300
player double double
Jaylin Williams double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+2200↓16%|+300
player double double
37.80
Composite Score
+2.2%
Net EV
35.00
Narrative Fit
8.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the likelihood that this game will have a high-scoring narrative due to the total of 233.5, one might consider Jaylin Williams to achieve a double-double. However, his season averages of only 5.9 points and 5.6 rebounds make this task appear daunting, especially against a strong Nuggets frontcourt that may limit his opportunities. With a final Net EV of 0.02 indicating minimal edge, this bet doesn't present a favorable risk-reward profile given the strong opposing evidence from the anti agent.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylin Williams has averaged 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists this season, indicating he is close to the double-double threshold with his current production given an increase in minutes could push him over.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder's large spread of -8.0 suggests they may dominate the game, potentially leading to more rebounding and assist opportunities for Williams as the game progresses.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 233.5, this game is expected to be high-scoring which translates to more opportunities for players like Williams to accumulate stats, making a double-double more feasible.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Williams has performed well with notable single-game rebounds of up to 9, indicating he has the capability to hit double digits in at least one of the two counting stats.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder are on a slightly negative trend with a recent loss, which could instigate a stronger performance from players to rebound, increasing Williams' chances for a double-double as they seek to reassert dominance.
Thesis: moderate
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 96%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylin Williams' season averages show that he is currently scoring only 5.9 points and grabbing 5.6 rebounds per game, which is far from the requirements for a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder's current matchup against the Denver Nuggets features a strong opposing frontcourt, which may limit Williams' rebounding opportunities and overall effectiveness.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the Thunder are projected to win by a significant margin (spread of -8.0), there is a risk of a blowout, leading to fewer minutes and opportunities for Williams to accumulate stats necessary for a double-double.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Williams has only exceeded the 10-rebound mark in one game and has not shown consistent scoring capability, which indicates a trend of underperformance relative to double-double expectations.
- →SITUATIONAL: With limited playing time averaging just 16.7 minutes a game and the potential for load management due to the team's depth, there is a strong likelihood that Williams will not reach the minutes necessary to achieve a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylin Williams has averaged 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists this season, indicating he is close to the double-double threshold with his current production given an increase in minutes could push him over.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder's large spread of -8.0 suggests they may dominate the game, potentially leading to more rebounding and assist opportunities for Williams as the game progresses.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 233.5, this game is expected to be high-scoring which translates to more opportunities for players like Williams to accumulate stats, making a double-double more feasible.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Williams has performed well with notable single-game rebounds of up to 9, indicating he has the capability to hit double digits in at least one of the two counting stats.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder are on a slightly negative trend with a recent loss, which could instigate a stronger performance from players to rebound, increasing Williams' chances for a double-double as they seek to reassert dominance.
Thesis: moderate
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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