Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Baylor Scheierman Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player assists
Baylor Scheierman Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player assists
34.70
Composite Score
+11.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
42.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this game, the Boston Celtics are heavily favored, indicating a likely lower possession game for the Brooklyn Nets, which favors an Under on Baylor Scheierman's assists. The strong Celtics defense against assists, combined with Scheierman's recent performance averaging only 1.2 assists over the last five games, supports the Under wager at 1.5 assists. Additionally, the blowout potential could further limit Scheierman's playing time, making the Net EV of 0.11 credible as it signals a well-underpriced bet in this context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman has averaged only 1.2 assists over the last 5 games, which is below the required 1.5 assists for this outcome.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are facing a strong defensive team in the Boston Celtics, who rank among the top in the league in limiting assists, making it harder for Scheierman to find open teammates.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, it is likely that the Nets will struggle, leading to fewer possessions and thus fewer opportunities for Scheierman to accumulate assists.
- →TREND: Scheierman struggled in a previous matchup against the Boston Celtics, posting 0 assists in just 3 minutes of play during one of their last encounters, showcasing his inability to contribute in this category against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high spread indicates potential for a blowout, which could lead to Scheierman being pulled from the game early, significantly reducing his chances to exceed 1.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman is averaging 1.2 assists per game over the last five games, which indicates he is close to the threshold of 1.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics have shown vulnerabilities in defending against guards, particularly when they face teams with multiple ball handlers, creating more opportunities for Scheierman to distribute the ball.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Celtics heavily favored by 18.0 points, game script may lead to fast-paced play for the Nets, increasing both offensive possession and the likelihood of assists from Scheierman as the game unfolds.
- →TREND: In the last game against the Celtics, Scheierman logged 15 minutes, which is significantly more than in previous games where he played under 10 minutes, suggesting increased role potential in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nets are on a six-game losing streak, which might force them to try new strategies to be competitive. Scheierman could benefit from this situation as they might funnel the offense through less conventional players to find opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Baylor Scheierman has averaged only 1.2 assists over the last 5 games, which is below the required 1.5 assists for this outcome.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are facing a strong defensive team in the Boston Celtics, who rank among the top in the league in limiting assists, making it harder for Scheierman to find open teammates.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, it is likely that the Nets will struggle, leading to fewer possessions and thus fewer opportunities for Scheierman to accumulate assists.
- →TREND: Scheierman struggled in a previous matchup against the Boston Celtics, posting 0 assists in just 3 minutes of play during one of their last encounters, showcasing his inability to contribute in this category against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high spread indicates potential for a blowout, which could lead to Scheierman being pulled from the game early, significantly reducing his chances to exceed 1.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory
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