Baylor Scheierman Under 4.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+115— stable

player rebounds

Baylor Scheierman Under 4.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+115— stable

player rebounds

35.10

Composite Score

+10.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

44.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Baylor Scheierman likely will face significant limitations on his rebounding chances against the strong rebounding unit of the Boston Celtics, especially if they establish a comfortable lead. With recent performance trending toward very low rebound totals (averaging only 1.6 in his last five), coupled with the risk of reduced minutes in a potential blowout, the Under 4.5 rebounds makes sense. The Net EV of 0.11 reflects a slight edge in expectation that the market may have undervalued this bet given the unfavorable matchup and game script.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Baylor Scheierman's recent performance shows he has averaged only 1.6 rebounds over the last five games, well below the 4.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are a strong rebounding team, which will limit Scheierman's opportunities, especially given their recent performance where they have dominated boards against weaker teams.
→NARRATIVE: The Celtics are favored by a large spread of 18.0 points, suggesting a potential blowout. If the game becomes one-sided, Scheierman's minutes could be significantly reduced, limiting his rebound opportunities.
→TREND: In his last five games, Scheierman has recorded 0 or 1 rebound in four out of five games, indicating a concerning trend of underperformance in this statistical category.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics being a top team and the Nets on a six-game losing streak, the game environment is unfavorable for Scheierman, suggesting that he will likely see fewer minutes and lower intensity, which translates into fewer rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Baylor Scheierman has averaged 1.6 rebounds in his last 5 games, but he posted a 6-rebound game against the Washington Wizards when provided extended minutes, showcasing his potential to exceed 4.5 rebounds if given enough playing time.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are currently ranked 14th in the league for rebounding, allowing for opportunities for players like Scheierman to grab more boards when matched against a team struggling on the glass.
→NARRATIVE: With the Boston Celtics being favored by a massive spread of -18.0, it suggests they could dominate the game, which often means more missed shots by the opposing team, leading to additional rebound opportunities for Scheierman.
→TREND: Scheierman had significant minutes in the game against the Washington Wizards, totaling 25 minutes, which resulted in 6 rebounds. If he could see that level of playing time again, he can exceed his average and reach over 4.5 rebounds.
→SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are on a 6-game losing streak, which often leads to teams playing catch-up and increasing missed shots. This scenario would create more rebounds up for grabs, particularly for Scheierman as a guard positioned to capitalize on long rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Baylor Scheierman's recent performance shows he has averaged only 1.6 rebounds over the last five games, well below the 4.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are a strong rebounding team, which will limit Scheierman's opportunities, especially given their recent performance where they have dominated boards against weaker teams.
→NARRATIVE: The Celtics are favored by a large spread of 18.0 points, suggesting a potential blowout. If the game becomes one-sided, Scheierman's minutes could be significantly reduced, limiting his rebound opportunities.
→TREND: In his last five games, Scheierman has recorded 0 or 1 rebound in four out of five games, indicating a concerning trend of underperformance in this statistical category.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics being a top team and the Nets on a six-game losing streak, the game environment is unfavorable for Scheierman, suggesting that he will likely see fewer minutes and lower intensity, which translates into fewer rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2