Sam Hauser Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+101— stable

player assists

Sam Hauser Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+101— stable

player assists

34.10

Composite Score

+10.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

40.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Sam Hauser Under 1.5 assists makes sense given the expected game script in favor of the Boston Celtics, which could lead to a blowout, limiting Hauser’s minutes and opportunities for assists. Both agents argue compelling narratives: the pro agent highlights his recent struggles and the Brooklyn Nets' strong defense limiting assist opportunities, while the anti agent’s points about possible increased minutes and offensive flow seem less aligned with the expected outcome of the game. The Net EV of 0.11 supports the case that this bet is underpriced by the bookmaker, leading to a recommendation to take the Under.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Sam Hauser is averaging only 1.0 assists over his last 5 games, which is well below the 1.5 assists threshold, suggesting he struggles to contribute significantly in this category.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets have a strong defensive setup, limiting assist opportunities for opposing players, particularly against wings like Hauser who may not be the primary ball handler.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 18 points favoring the Boston Celtics, it's likely that the game will turn into a blowout, leading to diminished minutes for Hauser and fewer chances to record assists.
→TREND: Hauser has not exceeded 1.5 assists in any of his last 5 games, indicating a consistent trend of underperformance in this statistical category.
→SITUATIONAL: The overall low game total of 209.5 suggests a potentially sluggish pace, which could further hinder the opportunities for Hauser to accumulate assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Sam Hauser's recent average of 1.0 assists per game highlights his role as an emerging playmaker, and combined with increased minutes of 22.4 per game, he has a strong chance of exceeding 1.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics face the Brooklyn Nets, a team with a poor defensive rating, which traditionally leads to increased opportunities for assists due to the pace of the game and the offensive flow of the Celtics.
→NARRATIVE: With the game's total set at 209.5 and the Celtics expected to dominate favorably given their recent performance, this likely results in Hauser having more opportunities to facilitate plays, especially in a high-paced scenario.
→TREND: Hauser has shown improvement in his assists, with the potential for assisted baskets to rise as he builds synergy with his teammates, especially since he’s impacted the scoring with 6.6 points per game over his last five outings.
→SITUATIONAL: The large spread of Celtics -18.0 suggests they will likely control the game, allowing for frontline players like Hauser to see extended minutes and handle the ball more frequently, thus enhancing his assist chances.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Sam Hauser is averaging only 1.0 assists over his last 5 games, which is well below the 1.5 assists threshold, suggesting he struggles to contribute significantly in this category.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets have a strong defensive setup, limiting assist opportunities for opposing players, particularly against wings like Hauser who may not be the primary ball handler.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 18 points favoring the Boston Celtics, it's likely that the game will turn into a blowout, leading to diminished minutes for Hauser and fewer chances to record assists.
→TREND: Hauser has not exceeded 1.5 assists in any of his last 5 games, indicating a consistent trend of underperformance in this statistical category.
→SITUATIONAL: The overall low game total of 209.5 suggests a potentially sluggish pace, which could further hinder the opportunities for Hauser to accumulate assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2