Baylor Scheierman Under 4.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+105— stable

player rebounds

Baylor Scheierman Under 4.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+105— stable

player rebounds

31.90

Composite Score

+8.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

35.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The likelihood of Baylor Scheierman recording under 4.5 rebounds is strengthened by the expected game script wherein the Boston Celtics, a strong rebounding team favored by 18.0 points, are likely to dominate and limit Scheierman's playing time. Additionally, with Scheierman averaging only 1.6 rebounds over his last five games, the narrative supports a continuation of this trend given the environment of a potentially one-sided game. The Net EV of 0.08 reflects both agents’ assessments, suggesting the bookmaker may have mispriced the odds, making this bet a worthwhile consideration.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Baylor Scheierman's recent performance shows he has averaged only 1.6 rebounds over the last five games, well below the 4.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are a strong rebounding team, which will limit Scheierman's opportunities, especially given their recent performance where they have dominated boards against weaker teams.
→NARRATIVE: The Celtics are favored by a large spread of 18.0 points, suggesting a potential blowout. If the game becomes one-sided, Scheierman's minutes could be significantly reduced, limiting his rebound opportunities.
→TREND: In his last five games, Scheierman has recorded 0 or 1 rebound in four out of five games, indicating a concerning trend of underperformance in this statistical category.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics being a top team and the Nets on a six-game losing streak, the game environment is unfavorable for Scheierman, suggesting that he will likely see fewer minutes and lower intensity, which translates into fewer rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Baylor Scheierman has averaged 1.6 rebounds in his last 5 games, but he posted a 6-rebound game against the Washington Wizards when provided extended minutes, showcasing his potential to exceed 4.5 rebounds if given enough playing time.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are currently ranked 14th in the league for rebounding, allowing for opportunities for players like Scheierman to grab more boards when matched against a team struggling on the glass.
→NARRATIVE: With the Boston Celtics being favored by a massive spread of -18.0, it suggests they could dominate the game, which often means more missed shots by the opposing team, leading to additional rebound opportunities for Scheierman.
→TREND: Scheierman had significant minutes in the game against the Washington Wizards, totaling 25 minutes, which resulted in 6 rebounds. If he could see that level of playing time again, he can exceed his average and reach over 4.5 rebounds.
→SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are on a 6-game losing streak, which often leads to teams playing catch-up and increasing missed shots. This scenario would create more rebounds up for grabs, particularly for Scheierman as a guard positioned to capitalize on long rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Baylor Scheierman's recent performance shows he has averaged only 1.6 rebounds over the last five games, well below the 4.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are a strong rebounding team, which will limit Scheierman's opportunities, especially given their recent performance where they have dominated boards against weaker teams.
→NARRATIVE: The Celtics are favored by a large spread of 18.0 points, suggesting a potential blowout. If the game becomes one-sided, Scheierman's minutes could be significantly reduced, limiting his rebound opportunities.
→TREND: In his last five games, Scheierman has recorded 0 or 1 rebound in four out of five games, indicating a concerning trend of underperformance in this statistical category.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics being a top team and the Nets on a six-game losing streak, the game environment is unfavorable for Scheierman, suggesting that he will likely see fewer minutes and lower intensity, which translates into fewer rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2