Egor Demin Under 3.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

-118— stable

player rebounds

Egor Demin Under 3.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

-118— stable

player rebounds

29.90

Composite Score

+7.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

29.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Demin's Under 3.5 rebounds seems tightly contested based on a balanced narrative – while he has had opportunities to exceed this threshold against the Nets in the past, the current matchup against the Celtics' strong defense combined with Brooklyn's likely blowout scenario suggests limited rebound opportunities. The Net EV of 0.07, while slightly positive, does not provide sufficient confidence in the bet considering the opposing trends from both agents regarding Demin's performance potential in this game.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Egor Demin averages only 3.0 rebounds per game, which is already below the 3.5 rebounds threshold, indicating a likelihood to stay under.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are one of the top defensive teams, which could limit Demin's opportunities for rebounds, especially against a strong frontcourt.
→NARRATIVE: With a spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, this game may become a blowout quickly, potentially leading to lower minutes for Demin if his team falls behind.
→TREND: Demin's recent games show fluctuating rebound numbers, but he has not exceeded 3.5 rebounds in three of his last five games against various opponents, showing inconsistency.
→SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are on a six-game losing streak, which might affect team morale and overall performance, putting further strain on Demin's ability to grab rebounds in a challenging matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Egor Demin has averaged 3.0 rebounds over the last 5 games, with a performance of 5 rebounds against the Brooklyn Nets, showing he can exceed this threshold in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are struggling this season, sitting at the bottom of their division, which can lead to increased opportunities for players like Demin to gather more rebounds in what could be a high-pace, competitive game against the top-seeded Celtics.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, the game is expected to be a blowout; however, if Egor Demin gets significant playing time as the Nets play catch-up, he might accumulate more rebounds than usual.
→TREND: In previous matchups against the Brooklyn Nets, Demin has recorded 5, 2, 3, and 4 rebounds in his last four games, indicating he has the capacity to exceed 3.5 rebounds against them historically.
→SITUATIONAL: Demin's recent playing time averages 25.4 minutes per game, and with a heavy reliance on him in a likely high-scoring game, this situation increases his chances to exceed the 3.5 rebounds mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com/, https://www.basketball-reference.com/

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Egor Demin averages only 3.0 rebounds per game, which is already below the 3.5 rebounds threshold, indicating a likelihood to stay under.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are one of the top defensive teams, which could limit Demin's opportunities for rebounds, especially against a strong frontcourt.
→NARRATIVE: With a spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, this game may become a blowout quickly, potentially leading to lower minutes for Demin if his team falls behind.
→TREND: Demin's recent games show fluctuating rebound numbers, but he has not exceeded 3.5 rebounds in three of his last five games against various opponents, showing inconsistency.
→SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are on a six-game losing streak, which might affect team morale and overall performance, putting further strain on Demin's ability to grab rebounds in a challenging matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2