Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons
Jaylon Tyson Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+117↑4%|-5
player threes
Jaylon Tyson Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+117↑4%|-5
player threes
31.80
Composite Score
+8.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
34.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons, the likelihood of Jaylon Tyson making UNDER 1.5 threes is supported by his poor shooting percentage of 26.7% over recent games and limited playing time averaging just 9.6 minutes per game. The game's competitive nature with a medium spread suggests tighter defensive play, which will further inhibit scoring opportunities, especially for a low-volume shooter like Tyson. The Net EV of 0.09 indicates the bet is underpriced by the bookmakers, reinforcing the idea that Tyson is unlikely to hit more than 1.5 threes in this context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylon Tyson has a 3-point shooting percentage of only 26.7% over his last five games, which significantly undermines the likelihood of him hitting more than 1.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers rank among the top teams in terms of defensive metrics, which could limit Tyson's opportunities to find open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's context with a medium spread of Detroit Pistons -5.5, it suggests a potentially competitive game that could require both teams to play tighter defense, reducing scoring chances including three-point attempts.
- →TREND: Tyson's recent performance indicates he has not consistently surpassed 1.5 threes; in fact, he has likely only managed to make an average of 0.6 threes/game based on his shooting provided (3PM not available).
- →SITUATIONAL: Tyson averages only 9.6 minutes per game this season, which results in limited opportunities for him to attempt and make 3-pointers, further decreasing the potential of exceeding 1.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylon Tyson has averaged 28.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, averaging 4.2 FG made/game, which suggests increased scoring opportunities per game.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have been strong offensively, and facing them means Tyson is likely to have to shoot more, especially given their scoring capabilities that could lead to a faster-paced game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 227.5, this game is expected to be high-scoring. A fast-paced game means more possessions and thus more opportunities for Tyson to hit his three-point shots.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Tyson has exhibited an increasing role in scoring with an average of 11.8 points/game, suggesting he is becoming more of an integral part of the offense.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are currently on a 1-game win streak with a strong record of 43-14, possibly leading to a competitive matchup where Tyson must perform well to keep pace.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jaylon Tyson has a 3-point shooting percentage of only 26.7% over his last five games, which significantly undermines the likelihood of him hitting more than 1.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers rank among the top teams in terms of defensive metrics, which could limit Tyson's opportunities to find open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's context with a medium spread of Detroit Pistons -5.5, it suggests a potentially competitive game that could require both teams to play tighter defense, reducing scoring chances including three-point attempts.
- →TREND: Tyson's recent performance indicates he has not consistently surpassed 1.5 threes; in fact, he has likely only managed to make an average of 0.6 threes/game based on his shooting provided (3PM not available).
- →SITUATIONAL: Tyson averages only 9.6 minutes per game this season, which results in limited opportunities for him to attempt and make 3-pointers, further decreasing the potential of exceeding 1.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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