Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Under 11.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-119↑216%|-222

player points

Duncan Robinson Under 11.5 points

💤 Noise Bet

-119↑216%|-222

player points

28.80

Composite Score

+6.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

25.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The total points expectation for this game, given the Cavaliers' strong defense and Robinson's recent underperformance, supports the Under on his points. Although a slight positive EV indicates possible undervaluation, the compelling evidence regarding Robinson's struggles to exceed 11.5 points and the matchup's implications suggest staying away from this bet. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates minimal edge, making it less reliable for a recommendation.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged only 9.0 points over his last 5 games, which is well below the threshold of 11.5 points, indicating a significant underperformance.
→MATCHUP: The Cavaliers are currently one of the stronger defensive teams in the league, which could limit Robinson's scoring opportunities against their defense.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected matchup and the spread of -5.5 in favor of the Pistons, there may be a chance the game leans towards a lower scoring output for Robinson, adversely affecting his overall points total.
→TREND: Robinson has not exceeded 11.5 points in any of his last 5 games, showing a consistent trend of scoring below this mark, which raises concerns about hitting the over in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the high-stakes environment of facing the Cavaliers, Robinson may have reduced offensive opportunities if the Pistons need to rely on other players to step up, diminishing his chances to score above the line.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 9.0 points over the last 5 games, but his minutes (23.6) are steadily increasing, indicating potential for more scoring opportunities.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have allowed an average of 113.5 points per game this season, which generally provides opponents, like Robinson, multiple scoring chances.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 227.5, this matchup is expected to be high-scoring, which typically enhances the likelihood of Robinson exceeding his points threshold.
→TREND: In his previous matchup against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson scored 10 points with substantial playing time, and given his recent form, he's likely to build on that performance.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a winning streak, suggesting a competitive environment that will likely keep Robinson on the court longer, leading to more scoring opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged only 9.0 points over his last 5 games, which is well below the threshold of 11.5 points, indicating a significant underperformance.
→MATCHUP: The Cavaliers are currently one of the stronger defensive teams in the league, which could limit Robinson's scoring opportunities against their defense.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected matchup and the spread of -5.5 in favor of the Pistons, there may be a chance the game leans towards a lower scoring output for Robinson, adversely affecting his overall points total.
→TREND: Robinson has not exceeded 11.5 points in any of his last 5 games, showing a consistent trend of scoring below this mark, which raises concerns about hitting the over in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the high-stakes environment of facing the Cavaliers, Robinson may have reduced offensive opportunities if the Pistons need to rely on other players to step up, diminishing his chances to score above the line.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2