Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 1.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+130— stable
player threes
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 1.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+130— stable
player threes
60.20
Composite Score
+16.2%
Net EV
35.00
Narrative Fit
69.30
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expectation of a high-scoring game with Michigan's strong offense aligns well with the potential for Lendeborg to exceed 1.5 threes. The close spread of +1.5 indicates a competitive matchup, which encourages heavy perimeter shooting from both teams. The Net EV of 0.16 reflects a favorable assessment of the bet, reinforcing that the market may have undervalued Lendeborg's chances in this context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for STATS.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines are currently ranked #3 and have a strong offensive presence, which could lead to a high number of three-point attempts against Illinois, allowing Lendeborg to capitalize on his opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With the total set at 158.5, this game is anticipated to be high-scoring, which generally supports the success of perimeter shooters like Lendeborg, leading to the expectation of him exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →TREND: Lendeborg has been part of a winning team (26-2), and high-pressure situations likely encourage more shooting from the perimeter as they look to secure their position against a top rival, Illinois.
- →SITUATIONAL: With a close spread of Illinois +1.5, the game is expected to remain competitive, compelling both teams to rely on their best shooters, which favors Lendeborg in getting more attempts from beyond the arc.
Thesis: moderate
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for player statistics for Yaxel Lendeborg, making it challenging to assess his three-point shooting efficiency in recent games.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong defense, which may limit Lendeborg's opportunities to get open looks from beyond the arc, thus reducing his chances of hitting more than 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be tightly contested given the spread of +1.5 and the high total, which can lead to increased defensive pressure, potentially stifling outside shooting opportunities.
- →TREND: Data not available for recent performance in terms of three-point shooting specifically, but the overall performance indicates inconsistency in offensive contributions from players other than the leading scorers.
- →SITUATIONAL: Lendeborg's role may be limited if other players are more effectively utilized, particularly in a high-stakes game with both teams vying for a top position in the Big Ten, which can lead to a more conservative approach.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for STATS.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines are currently ranked #3 and have a strong offensive presence, which could lead to a high number of three-point attempts against Illinois, allowing Lendeborg to capitalize on his opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: With the total set at 158.5, this game is anticipated to be high-scoring, which generally supports the success of perimeter shooters like Lendeborg, leading to the expectation of him exceeding 1.5 threes.
- →TREND: Lendeborg has been part of a winning team (26-2), and high-pressure situations likely encourage more shooting from the perimeter as they look to secure their position against a top rival, Illinois.
- →SITUATIONAL: With a close spread of Illinois +1.5, the game is expected to remain competitive, compelling both teams to rely on their best shooters, which favors Lendeborg in getting more attempts from beyond the arc.
Thesis: moderate
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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