Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Jake Davis Over 1.5 threes
🧠 Conviction Bet
-105↑205%|-205
player threes
Jake Davis Over 1.5 threes
🧠 Conviction Bet
-105↑205%|-205
player threes
47.60
Composite Score
+26.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
77.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script suggests a high-scoring affair, given the expected urgency and competitiveness between Michigan and Illinois, indicated by the close spread (+1.5 for Illinois). Jake Davis has a favorable opportunity to capitalize on this with the Illini's tendency to encourage three-point shooting despite their strong perimeter defense. The Net EV of 0.26 reinforces this, suggesting that the market may be underestimating his potential to exceed 1.5 three-pointers in a game filled with scoring chances.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jake Davis has shown significant potential in recent games, and given the high total of 158.5, scoring opportunities should be plentiful.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's offensive system encourages three-point shooting, creating a favorable environment for Davis to excel in beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams having strong offensive records and the game expected to be closely contested (spread at +1.5 for Illinois), there will be increased urgency for players like Davis to contribute to the scoreboard.
- →TREND: The recent trend shows both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, which correlates with increased volume and efficiency in three-point shooting across all players.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini play well at home, holding a 13-2 record, which often amps up player performances, particularly in shooting, making it likely for Davis to hit the over on threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for player stats.
- →MATCHUP: Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong perimeter defense, which could limit Jake Davis' opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc. Their defensive stats indicate they effectively contest three-point shots.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 158.5 implies potential offensive output, but it may actually lead to more ball movement and less reliance on individual long-range shooting, affecting Davis's three-point attempts.
- →TREND: Data not available for recent performance trend for Jake Davis's three-point shooting, but given the strength of the opposing defense, past performance may indicate a struggle to hit the over.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams ranked highly and coming off recent competitive games, there's a strong chance for tight defense and lower individual stats, as pressure situations often lead to fewer open shots.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jake Davis has shown significant potential in recent games, and given the high total of 158.5, scoring opportunities should be plentiful.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's offensive system encourages three-point shooting, creating a favorable environment for Davis to excel in beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams having strong offensive records and the game expected to be closely contested (spread at +1.5 for Illinois), there will be increased urgency for players like Davis to contribute to the scoreboard.
- →TREND: The recent trend shows both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, which correlates with increased volume and efficiency in three-point shooting across all players.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini play well at home, holding a 13-2 record, which often amps up player performances, particularly in shooting, making it likely for Davis to hit the over on threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available