Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Andrej Stojakovic Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+100— stable
player threes
Andrej Stojakovic Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+100— stable
player threes
26.70
Composite Score
+4.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
20.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, despite a high game total, Stojakovic's ability to score from beyond the arc is significantly hindered by Michigan's defensive pressure and potentially reduced shooting opportunities due to his recent lack of volume. The analysis from both agents shows a balanced narrative with slight positive EV (0.04), indicating that there's not enough of an edge to confidently support a wager on Stojakovic hitting Over 0.5 threes given all factors at play, such as his current trend and matchup dynamics.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for Andrej Stojakovic; however, limited shooting volume can lead to underperformance in hitting threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines' defense has been effective, likely limiting Stojakovic's open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 158.5 suggests an uptempo game, but it could lead to more scoring in the paint rather than on the perimeter, decreasing Stojakovic's three-point attempts.
- →TREND: Stojakovic's recent games have shown less consistency in three-point shooting, which implies he may struggle to hit even one three in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Illinois' recent losing streak might prompt a change in strategy, including increased focus on defensive matchups, potentially limiting Stojakovic's opportunities and minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Andrej Stojakovic is averaging 2.0 threes made per game this season, which significantly exceeds the 0.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines have a high defensive pressure but allow an average of 7.5 three-pointers made per game, creating ample opportunity for shooters like Stojakovic.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 158.5 in this game, a high-scoring environment is expected, leading to more offensive possessions and increased chances for Stojakovic to hit at least one three.
- →TREND: Stojakovic has been increasingly involved in the offense with his last three games showing a positive trend in three-point shooting, hitting at least one three in each of those outings.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game between Michigan and Illinois is closely contested with a spread of only 1.5, suggesting a competitive environment where both teams will push for scoring, leading to higher minutes for Stojakovic.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for Andrej Stojakovic; however, limited shooting volume can lead to underperformance in hitting threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines' defense has been effective, likely limiting Stojakovic's open looks from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 158.5 suggests an uptempo game, but it could lead to more scoring in the paint rather than on the perimeter, decreasing Stojakovic's three-point attempts.
- →TREND: Stojakovic's recent games have shown less consistency in three-point shooting, which implies he may struggle to hit even one three in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Illinois' recent losing streak might prompt a change in strategy, including increased focus on defensive matchups, potentially limiting Stojakovic's opportunities and minutes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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