Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Keaton Wagler Over 2.5 threes
🧠 Conviction Bet
+140— stable
player threes
Keaton Wagler Over 2.5 threes
🧠 Conviction Bet
+140— stable
player threes
42.30
Composite Score
+7.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
35.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the high game total of 158.5 and both teams' matchup dynamics, it is expected that Keaton Wagler will have ample opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc. The evidence supports that Wagler has averaged 3.2 three-pointers made per game and can exploit Michigan's weaknesses in defending perimeter shooters. The Net EV of 0.08 indicates that the market has slightly undervalued Wagler's ability to exceed the 2.5 three-pointers made, making this a worthwhile wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Keaton Wagler has been a consistent perimeter shooter for Illinois, averaging 3.2 three-pointers made per game this season, which exceeds the 2.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines have struggled defensively against strong shooting teams, allowing a 37% three-point shooting percentage, giving Wagler an opportunity to excel from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 158.5, this matchup is expected to be high-scoring, creating more opportunities for Wagler to attempt and make three-pointers.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Wagler has made at least 3 three-pointers in three out of five games, showcasing a strong trend upward in his three-point shooting form.
- →SITUATIONAL: The overall context of a close spread (+1.5) suggests a competitive game, likely requiring Wagler to play significant minutes and contribute, increasing his chances to exceed the 2.5 threes mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 58%
Evidence
- →STATS: Keaton Wagler's recent three-point shooting percentage is not available, but in high-pressure games against top teams, his attempts may drop due to defensive focus.
- →MATCHUP: The game features two strong teams, Michigan and Illinois, which typically leads to tighter defense and less open shooting opportunities, adversely affecting individual three-point totals.
- →NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring game (Total: 158.5), defenses may tighten, counterintuitively reducing the number of three-point shot attempts and conversions for players like Wagler.
- →TREND: Data on Wagler's last few games indicates he has struggled to consistently hit 3-pointers against competitive defenses, with potential scoring variability contributing to an inability to exceed 2.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game features a tightly contested spread (Illinois Fighting Illini +1.5) that suggests it could be closely fought, which means Wagler may not see the high volume of shots required to exceed 2.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Keaton Wagler has been a consistent perimeter shooter for Illinois, averaging 3.2 three-pointers made per game this season, which exceeds the 2.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines have struggled defensively against strong shooting teams, allowing a 37% three-point shooting percentage, giving Wagler an opportunity to excel from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 158.5, this matchup is expected to be high-scoring, creating more opportunities for Wagler to attempt and make three-pointers.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Wagler has made at least 3 three-pointers in three out of five games, showcasing a strong trend upward in his three-point shooting form.
- →SITUATIONAL: The overall context of a close spread (+1.5) suggests a competitive game, likely requiring Wagler to play significant minutes and contribute, increasing his chances to exceed the 2.5 threes mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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