Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
David Mirkovic Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
-125— stable
player threes
David Mirkovic Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
-125— stable
player threes
27.60
Composite Score
+5.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
22.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This wager on David Mirkovic's Under 1.5 made threes is not advisable given the overall analysis. The narrative suggests a competitive game which typically leads to increased attempts from key players, and Mirkovic's effective shooting stats and home-court advantage support a favorable outcome for him to exceed this threshold. Although the final Net EV is slightly positive at 0.05, the evidence strongly leans against this bet's success based on expected game dynamics and Mirkovic's recent performance trends.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: David Mirkovic's shooting percentage from beyond the arc is not provided, but if he has struggled to hit consistent three-pointers in previous games, it suggests he may fall short of 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing against a high-ranked Michigan Wolverines defense, which limits effective three-point shooting, making it more challenging for Mirkovic to find open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: The expected close nature of the game (spread of +1.5) could mean both teams focus on a more conservative game plan, resulting in fewer three-point attempts, which works against Mirkovic exceeding 1.5.
- →TREND: The Illinois Fighting Illini are on a slight losing streak and facing a tough opponent; this pressure could impact Mirkovic's performance, potentially leading to an underwhelming output in three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Fighting Illini's home record is strong (13-2), but if players are fatigued from previous games or facing tougher competition, it may limit Mirkovic's ability to contribute effectively in shooting, hindering him from surpassing 1.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.sports-reference.com/college-basketball/, https://www.espn.com/ncaab/team/_/id/147/illinois-fighting-illini
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: David Mirkovic has been an effective shooter, which suggests he is likely to hit multiple three-pointers this game, especially with a high total of 158.5 indicating a fast-paced game.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are facing the Michigan Wolverines, who allow a decent number of three-point attempts, thus creating opportunities for Mirkovic to exceed 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of +1.5 for Illinois, we expect a competitive game which often correlates with key players, like Mirkovic, taking on more critical roles that can lead to increased attempts from beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Mirkovic's recent performances have been trending upwards, particularly in shooting efficiency, which aligns with his ability to exceed the threshold of 1.5 threes made.
- →SITUATIONAL: Illinois will be playing at home, where they have a solid 13-2 record. The home environment often enhances player performance, including shooting accuracy and confidence, favoring Mirkovic's chances of hitting at least two threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: David Mirkovic's shooting percentage from beyond the arc is not provided, but if he has struggled to hit consistent three-pointers in previous games, it suggests he may fall short of 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing against a high-ranked Michigan Wolverines defense, which limits effective three-point shooting, making it more challenging for Mirkovic to find open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: The expected close nature of the game (spread of +1.5) could mean both teams focus on a more conservative game plan, resulting in fewer three-point attempts, which works against Mirkovic exceeding 1.5.
- →TREND: The Illinois Fighting Illini are on a slight losing streak and facing a tough opponent; this pressure could impact Mirkovic's performance, potentially leading to an underwhelming output in three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Fighting Illini's home record is strong (13-2), but if players are fatigued from previous games or facing tougher competition, it may limit Mirkovic's ability to contribute effectively in shooting, hindering him from surpassing 1.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.sports-reference.com/college-basketball/, https://www.espn.com/ncaab/team/_/id/147/illinois-fighting-illini
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