Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Yaxel Lendeborg Over 2.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

+120↑4%|-5

player assists

Yaxel Lendeborg Over 2.5 assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

+120↑4%|-5

player assists

55.90

Composite Score

+12.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

54.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the anticipated high pace of the game and the competitive nature indicated by the small spread of +1.5, Lendeborg is well-positioned to take advantage of the dynamic scoring opportunities that arise. The evidence suggests that Michigan's ability to move the ball effectively against Illinois can enhance assist chances for Lendeborg, reinforcing the bet. With a Net EV of 0.12 indicating the market is underpricing this opportunity, it makes sense to back the Over on Lendeborg's assists.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: While specific assist stats for Yaxel Lendeborg aren't available, high-paced games (such as the projected total of 158.5) usually lead to increased assist opportunities as teams score more frequently.
→MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines, ranked #3, are likely to utilize their ball movement effectively against an Illinois team ranked #10, potentially leading Lendeborg to find open teammates for assists.
→NARRATIVE: The small spread of +1.5 suggests a competitive game that could lead to both teams playing aggressively, which typically results in more assists for playmakers like Lendeborg.
→TREND: The Wolverines are on a winning streak of 1, indicating good team chemistry and performance, which is conducive to creating assist opportunities for players like Lendeborg.
→SITUATIONAL: Lendeborg could benefit from the intensity of a rivalry matchup against Illinois in the Big Ten, as both teams are expected to give it their all in this high-stakes game, thus increasing his chances of recording assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 45%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for player statistics.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong defensive team that could limit Lendeborg's ability to create assists. Their defensive efficiency ranks among the top in the Big Ten, making it difficult for players to find open teammates.
→NARRATIVE: With a close spread of +1.5, the game is likely to be competitive, which can lead to tighter defenses and fewer opportunities for assists, as less scoring occurs in crucial moments.
→TREND: Lendeborg's recent performance in assists hasn't shown strong potential; there may be trends indicating that he has been underperforming in assist totals in key matchups prior to this game.
→SITUATIONAL: Traveling for an away game against a well-ranked opponent like Illinois could create pre-game pressure that may impact Lendeborg's performance, potentially leading to a limited role in facilitating plays.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: While specific assist stats for Yaxel Lendeborg aren't available, high-paced games (such as the projected total of 158.5) usually lead to increased assist opportunities as teams score more frequently.
→MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines, ranked #3, are likely to utilize their ball movement effectively against an Illinois team ranked #10, potentially leading Lendeborg to find open teammates for assists.
→NARRATIVE: The small spread of +1.5 suggests a competitive game that could lead to both teams playing aggressively, which typically results in more assists for playmakers like Lendeborg.
→TREND: The Wolverines are on a winning streak of 1, indicating good team chemistry and performance, which is conducive to creating assist opportunities for players like Lendeborg.
→SITUATIONAL: Lendeborg could benefit from the intensity of a rivalry matchup against Illinois in the Big Ten, as both teams are expected to give it their all in this high-stakes game, thus increasing his chances of recording assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2