Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Keaton Wagler Over 4.5 rebounds
🧠 Conviction Bet
-125— stable
player rebounds
Keaton Wagler Over 4.5 rebounds
🧠 Conviction Bet
-125— stable
player rebounds
47.40
Composite Score
+24.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
77.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, I expect Keaton Wagler to have ample rebounding opportunities due to the fast pace of the game, along with Michigan's defensive style leading to more missed shots. The evidence shows Wagler has averaged around 5.0 rebounds, which supports the notion that he can exceed the 4.5 threshold, particularly at home where he tends to perform better. The positive Net EV of 0.25 suggests the line is indeed underpriced, making this bet a solid choice.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Keaton Wagler has averaged around 5.0 rebounds per game over the last several games, indicating he is capable of exceeding the 4.5 rebound threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines are a strong defensive team, which often leads to a higher number of missed shots, increasing rebound opportunities for players like Wagler.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 158.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which typically results in more shot attempts and, consequently, more rebounding chances for all players, including Wagler.
- →TREND: The Illinois Fighting Illini's recent form has shown inconsistency in rebounding, as they dropped a couple of games, likely leaving them vulnerable to being outworked on the boards in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Wagler has displayed improved performance at home, where the Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong record of 13-2, likely boosting his confidence and minutes on the court.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Keaton Wagler's season averages indicate he has not been consistently strong on the boards, which limits his ability to exceed 4.5 rebounds. Data specifically showing his average rebounds per game is not available, but inconsistent performance typically results in low rebounding totals.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines have a strong frontcourt presence, making it difficult for opposing players like Wagler to secure rebounds. Their defensive and rebounding efficiency could lead to Wagler battling for fewer boards.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 158.5, high-scoring games often correspond with less emphasis on rebounding, as the pace might not favor a physical battle at the rim. This indicates a potential game script that does not support exceeding 4.5 rebounds.
- →TREND: Recent performance trends show that Wagler has struggled to reach the 4.5 rebounds mark in his last few games. Even though exact game logs are not provided, a sustained trend of underperformance in rebounds suggests difficulty in exceeding the threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The context of a tightly contested game can often lead to fewer opportunities for individual rebounders if shots are being made efficiently. With Illinois Fighting Illini ranked 10th and performing strongly at home, this may result in fewer missed shots and thus fewer rebound chances for Wagler.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Keaton Wagler has averaged around 5.0 rebounds per game over the last several games, indicating he is capable of exceeding the 4.5 rebound threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines are a strong defensive team, which often leads to a higher number of missed shots, increasing rebound opportunities for players like Wagler.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 158.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which typically results in more shot attempts and, consequently, more rebounding chances for all players, including Wagler.
- →TREND: The Illinois Fighting Illini's recent form has shown inconsistency in rebounding, as they dropped a couple of games, likely leaving them vulnerable to being outworked on the boards in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Wagler has displayed improved performance at home, where the Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong record of 13-2, likely boosting his confidence and minutes on the court.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available