Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2400↓2035%|+2524

player assists alternate

De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2400↓2035%|+2524

player assists alternate

78.00

Composite Score

+66.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

With a projected high-scoring game total of 232.5, De'Aaron Fox is positioned to take advantage of the fast pace from the Detroit Pistons, creating ample opportunities for assists. Given his recent performance averaging 5.6 assists in the last five games and a favorable matchup against the Spurs, it's reasonable to expect Fox to exceed the 12.5 assists line. The Net EV of 0.67 confirms this wagering opportunity as the market undervalues his potential output in this dynamic matchup.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox is averaging 5.6 assists per game over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 3.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have one of the highest PACE ratings in the league, leading to increased possessions and opportunities for Fox to accumulate assists.
→NARRATIVE: This game is projected to be high-scoring with a total of 232.5, and in high-scoring games, the primary ballhandler often sees an uptick in assist totals.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Spurs, Fox registered 5 assists, indicating he is capable of meeting or exceeding this figure against this opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing well, with the Spurs and Pistons on winning streaks. Such competitive dynamics often lead to close games where Fox is likely to play extended minutes, bolstering his chances to exceed 3.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Despite his season average of 6.3 assists, Fox has averaged only 5.6 assists over the last 5 games, which suggests a decline in playmaking ability in recent matchups.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs rank highly in defensive rating, suggesting they can limit opposing guards' effectiveness, making it more difficult for Fox to generate assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of -1.5 in this matchup, the game is expected to be competitive, which may increase individual play style over ball movement, resulting in fewer assists for Fox.
→TREND: In his recent outings against the Spurs, he only managed 3 assists in one of the last two matchups, highlighting a concerning performance trend in this specific game context.
→SITUATIONAL: The current streak of wins (8 for Spurs) suggests they are playing well defensively, which could mean Fox's opportunities to secure assists might be limited as the opposing team works to maintain their momentum.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com, https://www.espn.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: De'Aaron Fox is averaging 5.6 assists per game over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 3.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have one of the highest PACE ratings in the league, leading to increased possessions and opportunities for Fox to accumulate assists.
→NARRATIVE: This game is projected to be high-scoring with a total of 232.5, and in high-scoring games, the primary ballhandler often sees an uptick in assist totals.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Spurs, Fox registered 5 assists, indicating he is capable of meeting or exceeding this figure against this opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing well, with the Spurs and Pistons on winning streaks. Such competitive dynamics often lead to close games where Fox is likely to play extended minutes, bolstering his chances to exceed 3.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available

+600+68.6% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 17.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+44.0% EV

Stephon Castle Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+40.5% EV

Dylan Harper Over 8.5 assists alternate💤

+2800+39.3% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate💤

+800+37.0% EV