Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+800↓254%|+1320

player assists alternate

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+800↓254%|+1320

player assists alternate

63.70

Composite Score

+37.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The game between the Spurs and Pistons is expected to be a high-paced affair, favorable for Ausar Thompson to surpass 5.5 assists. With both teams providing ample opportunities for offensive plays and the Pistons relying on Thompson for increased contributions, particularly given the game's competitive nature, I see good potential in this bet despite his recent low assist average. The Net EV (0.37) also indicates this line may be undervalued, suggesting the bookmaker's odds reflect a lower expectation than warranted.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 1.6 assists over his last five games, which is already above the threshold of 1.5 assists needed to hit the over.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who have allowed a higher average of assists per game compared to other teams, giving Thompson a favorable opportunity to exceed his assists total.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 232.5 for the game, the expected high-scoring environment suggests plenty of opportunities for Thompson to rack up assists as the pace of the game will likely be elevated.
→TREND: Thompson’s recent performance trend indicates he is becoming more integral to the Pistons’ offense, with an increase in assists aligning with enhanced playing time and offensive responsibilities.
→SITUATIONAL: The competitive nature of this matchup, with both teams having strong winning streaks, suggests that this game will be close, allowing Thompson to play significant minutes and, thus, increase his chances of exceeding 1.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's average assists over the last 5 games is just 1.6, which indicates he has not consistently reached 2 or more assists, making it unlikely he will exceed 1.5 in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: Given that the San Antonio Spurs are performing well overall, currently holding a strong record of 40-16, they may limit the offensive capabilities of the Pistons, thereby reducing Thompson's assist opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: The current competitive landscape—both teams are in playoff contention—suggests a tighter game, which usually leads to lower individual scoring stats, including assists, especially for role players like Thompson.
→TREND: In the previous game against the Detroit Pistons, Thompson recorded only 2 assists, indicating he had a peak performance that may not be reproducible, suggesting his baseline is lower than what is needed to exceed 1.5 assists regularly.
→SITUATIONAL: Thompson's average minutes per game at 22.5 does not support the increase in assists, especially in a closely contested game where rotations could tighten, resulting in fewer opportunities to pass to scorers.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 1.6 assists over his last five games, which is already above the threshold of 1.5 assists needed to hit the over.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who have allowed a higher average of assists per game compared to other teams, giving Thompson a favorable opportunity to exceed his assists total.
→NARRATIVE: With a total of 232.5 for the game, the expected high-scoring environment suggests plenty of opportunities for Thompson to rack up assists as the pace of the game will likely be elevated.
→TREND: Thompson’s recent performance trend indicates he is becoming more integral to the Pistons’ offense, with an increase in assists aligning with enhanced playing time and offensive responsibilities.
→SITUATIONAL: The competitive nature of this matchup, with both teams having strong winning streaks, suggests that this game will be close, allowing Thompson to play significant minutes and, thus, increase his chances of exceeding 1.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+600+68.6% EV

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